$85M Polymarket Trump Bet Winner Reveals Details of Wager, French Regulators Investigate

The man who won $85 million betting on Donald Trump’s recent U.S. Presidential election win says he commissioned his own polling data before placing the $45 million in wagers.

The mystery French trader spoke to The Wall Street Journal this week to confirm details of the high-stakes bet. As we previously reported, the sum was placed over thousands of smaller wagers spread across multiple accounts on market prediction site Polymarket. 

The wealthy bettor gave his name only as Theo. He told journalists he commissioned his own poll from a private U.S. polling organization before putting his money on Trump. He says a tweaked methodology exposed a broad range of support for the Republican candidate that other polls had missed. 

The bets are reportedly being investigated by French financial regulators. Theo has insisted that he was not trying to shift the market or betting with any political agenda. He only wanted to make a “big profit” betting with his own money, he said via email. 

Theo successfully predicted Trump would win the election against his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. But he also successfully bet that the Republican would win the popular vote (which he did not manage in his previous 2016 victory) and that he would win six out of the seven swing states that eventually turned red on November 5. 

The Wagers 

Before placing his $45 million in bets on Trump, French financial trader Theo said he commissioned an independent U.S.- based polling service to conduct a private poll for him.

In this poll, people were asked not who they would vote for, but who they think their neighbors would vote for.

Although some might contend asking people to speculate who their neighbors support politically might not be accurate, Theo says the results were spectacularly and correctly in favor of Trump.

Research into this kind of polling has suggested that it may be more accurate, as people who may otherwise not want to share their views are more likely to participate. A so-called “neighbor poll” may also add more potential voters to the mix, especially if a person can simply look out their window and see signs supporting a candidate for example. It may also balance for shy voters, or people who are so reticent to admit their voting intention that they lie to pollsters. 

Theo could have won significantly more money if the betting was going on the pre-election odds calculated by traditional media polls, which had the election as a very close 50/50 toss up. 

However, Trump was a significant favorite on Polymarket betting. Days before the election, Trump was taking more than 60% of the bets on the platform, compared to around 35% for Harris. 

In the days leading up to the election, world’s richest man and vocal Trump supporter Elon Musk told his millions of online followers he believes election betting trends are more accurate at predicting results than traditional polls. 

The Win

In the end, Theo’s $45 million in wagers successfully paid out $85 million. His payout was slightly increased, he says, as part of the sum was a large series of bets placed in October on Trump to win the popular vote. At that time, only 40% of those on Polymarket who had put money down thought this would be the outcome.

Theo told journalists he made the bets over multiple accounts in a longer period, as he wasn’t trying to influence the market. Nevertheless, he was forced to confirm his betting activity after an investigation from blockchain security firm Arkham Intelligence revealed some clues as to his identity.

Theo’s bets accounted for about 1% of the $4.5 billion wagered, mostly in cryptocurrencies, on the U.S. election via Polymarket. The site is not authorized to operate in the U.S., or indeed, France. 

Since the news broke, the French National Gaming Authority is reportedly looking to take legal action against Polymarket.