Donald Trump Election Victory Wagers See $45M Bet by French Trader on Crypto Betting Site 

In what looks likely to be one of the bigger confirmed gambling wagers of 2024, one French financial trader has placed a total of $45 million in bets on Donald Trump to win the upcoming U.S. presidential election. 

The wagers were placed on offshore crypto betting site Polymarket. The large sum was spread over thousands of small bets, a Business Insider report said. This is suggestive of an attempt not to move the market with a few massive bets, thus maximizing potential profit. 

Investigations uncovering the multiple accounts discovered that all were owned by one person. The bets were first revealed in the New York Times, and the news was then confirmed by Polymarket. 

The reveal and confirmation puts an end to days of rampant speculation as to who was behind the bets — or in today’s skeptical climate, probably not all theories. But at least there is now an official line from the operator that took the bet.

Previously rumored to be behind the bets were Elon Musk, YouTuber-turned-boxer and cofounder of sportsbook Betr Jake Paul, and even Trump himself. All of whom would have been doing so illegally, as U.S. citizens are barred from betting on Polymarket. 

“Our investigation to date has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market,” said a spokesperson for Polymarket.

“This user has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.”

The Wagers

The wagers were placed by accounts called Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. Because the bets were placed on the blockchain using cryptocurrency, it was possible to analyze (to an extent) where the bets came from.

This let researchers from blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence and others to confirm that the four accounts were most likely linked. Between them, they placed thousands of bets totaling $45 million over several weeks. Rampant speculation around the identity of the person behind the accounts includes some of the world’s richest figures. 

However, Polymarket has since confirmed the bettor is a French national with decades of experience in financial trading. The bets from this one individual accounted for around 1% of the election market on the platform. 

Republican candidate Trump is currently 64.1% backed to win the November election on Polymarket. His Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, sits at 35.9%. That is far different from the neck-and-neck race suggested by most traditional opinion polls. 

The Betting 

The wagers were not placed in a traditional odds manner as provided by a sportsbook. Instead, the prediction market Polymarket is entirely based on user opinion.

Bettors buy into the market in $1 shares at whatever the odds are at the time of the buy-in. 

The issue of election betting is a contentious one in the U.S. Polymarket was fined $1.6 million by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, and since then, it has not allowed U.S. customers. 

Meanwhile, betting exchange Kalshi, which offers a similar prediction service, won a recent legal battle over its right to offer election markets in the U.S. 

High-profile billionaire Elon Musk even recently posted about election betting on X, the social media platform he owns. He claimed that election betting is a more accurate representation of public opinion than polls, as money is on the line.

The counter there is that those who are willing to put money on the line, especially at an offshore cryptocurrency betting exchange, represent a smaller and less random subsection of society than captured by polls.

Across the Atlantic in the UK, recent election losers the Conservative Party were swamped in controversy over election betting. A former sitting Member of Parliament was found to have bet $10K on himself to lose his individual election campaign.