Updated NFL Draft Betting Odds

We are less than two weeks away from the start of the NFL Draft in Detroit, and there is only one thing we can truly count on. The Chicago Bears will almost certainly take USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick.

At least we think we know that, because the oddsmakers are sure of it. Williams is -10000 to hear his name called first, and he will be the first of what is expected to be a top-heavy, quarterback-filled first round.

No. 2 Overall Pick

If QB1 is Williams, who is QB2? That is the question that has an answer that changes from day-to-day.

LSU’s Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels is currently the favorite to go No. 2 to the Washington Commanders, paying -165. But North Carolina’s Drake Maye isn’t far behind at +140, and one of the biggest movers over the last two months is Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, now +400 to be the second overall pick.

All expectations are that the Commanders stick at No. 2, do not trade back, and they will absolutely take a quarterback. We won’t really know who it is until draft night.

No. 3 Overall Pick

This pick belongs to the New England Patriots, and they might be the least predictive team in the draft. After more than two decades of watching Bill Belichick run the show, everything is new, and no one knows what to expect.

Quarterback is a likely option, and Maye is the favorite to go here, paying -110. However, if Maye goes to the Commanders, Daniels will go here and pay +160. McCarthy is also in the mix at +250.

Or… New England realizes it has so many holes to fill, so they trade out of No. 3 to a team like the Minnesota Vikings or Denver Broncos, who are both in desperate need of a quarterback.

First Wide Receiver Taken

NFL general managers have been salivating over Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. for two years now, and he is the favorite to be the first wide receiver off the board. You’ll only get -500 on Harrison, which might make the +300 on Malik Nabers an attractive bet. The LSU standout has many draft pundits calling him the most explosive of the two.

At this position, NFL teams also can’t go wrong with Rome Odunze of Washington. But as a bet, he’s a +2500 longshot. 

First Running Back Taken

One of the least-talked about positions for the 2024 NFL Draft is running back. And in terms of the betting market, this is the most wide-open position race there is.

Trey Benson of Florida State runs a 4.39, and he is the slight favorite to be the first running back off the board. Benson is +160, and him going first would be the icing on the cake of his comeback story. In 2020, he tore his ACL, MCL, lateral meniscus, medial meniscus, and a tendon in his hamstring, all in one horrific knee injury.

Right behind on the betting board is Jonathon Brooks, the breakout star for Texas this season. He ran for 1,139 yards in 2023 and he is still just 20-years-old. His odds of going first are +175.

Jaylen Wright (+360) ran for more than 1,000 yards at Tennessee last year. MarShawn Lloyd (+650) spent last season at USC. And First-Team All-American Blake Corum (+750) was the Offensive MVP in Michigan’s College Football Playoff national championship win.

NFL Draft Prop Builders

Former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh is the new coach with the Los Angeles Chargers, and he loves his guys. You can get +10000 on a bet that he will draft J.J. McCarthy at quarterback and running back Blake Corum.

Also paying +10000 is a San Francisco 49ers family affair. If they draft USC wide receiver Brenden Rice (the son of Jerry Rice), Southern Miss running back Frank Gore Jr. (his father is the 49ers all-time leading rusher), and Rice wide receiver Luke McCaffrey (the younger brother of 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey), you win.

Conference Supremacy

Every year, each conference wants bragging rights as to who sends the most players to the NFL as high draft picks. Most years, it’s the SEC, and the expectation is that it will again be the SEC this year. The over/under on first round selections from the Southeastern Conference is 9.5, and you’re only getting -240 on the over.

The now-defunct Pac-12 has an over/under of 7.5, and taking the under pays -220. The Big Ten is at 5.5, with the over paying -155. The ACC’s line is 4.5 – the under is paying -285 – and the Big 12 is bringing up the rear of the Power 5 conferences, with a first round draft pick line of 3.5. The over there pays -145.

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