‘Thursday Night Football’ Betting Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

The Pittsburgh Steelers made one of the biggest statements in Week 11 by beating the Baltimore Ravens and claiming a two-game lead in the AFC North. Now, they look to make the first statement of Week 12 by winning another division game over the Cleveland Browns.

Game Line: Steelers (-3.5)

It may not sound like much of a rivalry. One team has 24 division championships, eight conference titles, and six Super Bowl championships. The other team has six division championships and is one of just four teams to never play in the Super Bowl. But head-to-head, these two teams have given us some classics.

They’ve been in the same division or conference since 1950, and with only two hours travel time separating the two cities on the Ohio and Pennsylvania Turnpike, it’s a rivalry of geography, too. 

In the final week of the 2020 season, Cleveland beat the Steelers to go to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. They then beat the Steelers in the Wild Card Round at Pittsburgh for their first playoff win in 26 years.

This is also the rivalry that gave us Myles Garrett ripping off the helmet of Mason Rudolph and hitting him in the head with it. Two other players jumped in the fray, and they, along with Garrett, were ejected from the game.

With 17 total punts, we won’t call it a classic. But last year, the Browns beat the Steelers, 13-10, and Garrett and T.J. Watt each had sacks. This week, a little extra fuel was added to the personal rivalry between these two great pass rushers when Garrett said that Watt owes him an apology for implying that Watt, and not Garrett, deserved last year’s Defensive Player of the Year award.

Watt finished 2023 with 19 sacks to Garrett’s 14, and this season, Watt has 7.5 sacks to Garrett’s 7.0. Watt is -200 to win DPOY this year, while Garrett is well down the list at +3500.

Quarterback Proposition Bets

Both of these defenses are good, so neither starting quarterback is expected to light it up. The over/under on passing yards for Russell Wilson is 176.5, while Jameis Winston is at 212.5. Wilson has gone over that total in all four of his starts this season. But the Cleveland defense has had some notable performances, holding Joe Burrow to just 181 yards and Dak Prescott to 179.

Winston is coming off a huge 395-yard game last week against the New Orleans Saints, and he also went over 300 yards against the Ravens in Week 8.

Running Back Proposition Bets

It may not be until 2025 before we see a full load for Browns running back Nick Chubb. He’s still working his way back from the major knee injury he suffered in 2023, and so far, his rushing attempts in four games have been 11, 16, 15, and 11. His over/under on rush yards for Thursday is 51.5, and his rushing attempts are set at 14.5.

Najee Harris of the Steelers has an over/under of 66.5 rushing yards, and his teammate Jaylen Warren is at 37.5 rush yards. Harris is the favorite to score the first touchdown of the game, paying +450. Chubb is the second betting favorite at +550.

Pass Catcher Proposition Bets

The best wide receiver on the field Thursday night will be George Pickens, who has an over/under on receiving yards of 55.5. You can wager on Pickens to get at least 100 yards, and that bet pays +475. Pickens has gone over 100 twice this season, and in his last two games, he had 91 and 89 yards. Last year against the Browns, he had a 127-yard game.

The other Pittsburgh pass catcher of note is tight end Pat Freiermuth, and his over/under is 17.5 receiving yards. He went over that total in six of the first eight games, but has gone under in each of the last two. Freiermuth is +320 to score a touchdown, and Pickens is +200.

For the Browns, tight end David Njoku’s over/under is 46.5, Jerry Jeudy is at 44.5, and Cedric Tillman is 43.5. Njoku and Tillman are +310 to score a touchdown and Jeudy is +320.