‘Thursday Night Football’ Betting Preview: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

The AFC West has been the domain of the Kansas CIty Chiefs for nearly a full decade. They have won nine straight division titles, and winning those division races has been relatively easy. But the last team to claim the title before KC went on its run was the Denver Broncos. That was the year Peyton Manning and Von Miller beat the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50.

This is the best Broncos team since that 2015 season, and this is the best AFC West since then. The Chiefs are on top of the conference as the current No. 1 seed. The Broncos are the No. 6 seed and sitting with a 92% probability of ending their nine-year playoff drought. And the Los Angeles Chargers, in their first season under Jim Harbaugh, are the No. 7 seed, with an 87% probability of finishing the year in the AFC playoffs.

Game Line: Chargers (-2.5)

Even with a loss on Thursday, the NFL’s NextGenStats has both teams highly probable to make the playoffs. A loss only drops the Broncos to 85% and the Chargers to 73%. But this game is very important for a couple of reasons.

Both teams struggled last week and need to have better showings before the playoffs begin. L.A. was blown out, 40-17, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And while the Broncos won their game with the Indianapolis Colts, the offense had less than 200 yards and rookie quarterback Bo Nix threw three interceptions.

There is also plenty of incentive to avoid being the No. 7 seed. Right now, the last team to get into the playoffs will be the first opponent of the Buffalo Bills, who no one wants to face.

Quarterback Proposition Bets

It wasn’t that long ago that Bo Nix was making noise in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. That talk has cooled with his five interceptions the last two weeks. But he did still throw three touchdowns last week, and he is +135 to throw at least two this week. His over/under on passing yards is 222.5, a total he’s gone over in five of his last seven games.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been bruised and battered the last two weeks, and he has been just average in his career vs. Denver. He’s 4-4 in eight starts, with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s +100 to throw at least two touchdown passes on Thursday, and his over/under on passing yards is 229.5.

Running Back Proposition Bets

The Chargers were one of the best running teams in the league through 10 games, averaging 121 yards on the ground. Top back J.K. Dobbins was on pace for over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns. Then he got hurt, and since that game against his old Baltimore Ravens teammates, L.A. has rushed for just 66 yards per game.

There are no clear top backs for either team in this game. For the Chargers, Gus Edwards has a rushing yards line of 34.5, and Kimani Vidal is at 24.5. The Broncos are missing Jaleel McLaughlin in this game, and their running back over/unders are 34.5 for Javonte Williams and 25.5 for Audric Estime.

Pass Catcher Proposition Bets

The hype around this year’s rookie class of wide receivers centered around top 10 picks Mavin Harrioson Jr, Malik Nabors, and Rome Odunze. But the 34th overall pick, Ladd McConkey, has been just as good if not, better. The former Georgia Bulldog, who teamed with fellow rookie stud Brock Bowers in college, has become L.A.’s top wide receiver. He’s on pace for more than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns, and his over/under on receiving yards on Thursday is 64.5. He’s +155 to score a touchdown.

Other Chargers pass catchers include Quentin Johnston at 38.5, Stone Smartt at 32.5, and Joshua Palmer at 28.5.

Courtland Sutton continues to be one of the best and most consistent receivers in the NFL, and the Broncos WR1 has an over/under of 60.5, which is well below his averages. The entire offense was bad last week, and he had just 32 yards. But prior to that, Sutton put up receiving yards totals of 102, 97, 78, 70, 122, and 100. Sutton is +170 to score a touchdown.

Marvin Mims has an over/under of 24.5, and Devaughn Vale is at 31.5.