Save your NFC South jokes from years past. In 2024, this has been one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, and this Thursday night in Atlanta, we’re getting treated to a clash between the two teams at the top of the standings.
Game Line: Falcons (-1.5)
An unexpected slipup at home against the Denver Broncos in Week 3 is the only blemish on the record of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Otherwise, they have looked outstanding, with blowout wins over the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, and perhaps the best win in the NFC coming in their Week 2 game at Detroit.
It hasn’t been quite as smooth for the Atlanta Falcons, where everything is new this year. New head coach, new offense, and new quarterback — but the same old rivalry with the New Orleans Saints, which provided a big win last week at home and inside the division.
Now it’s time for the Falcons to build on that win. They need to make it back-to-back victories for the first time in 11 games, dating back to last season, and their first back-to–back wins in the NFC South in 16 games.
Atlanta is favored by a modest 1.5 points, and they are just 1-3 against the spread on the young season. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is 3-1 against the spread and 2-0 as the underdog.
Quarterback Proposition Bets
It is Kirk Cousins who is the four-time Pro Bowler and a 4,000-yard passer seven times over, and it was Cousins that signed a four-year, $180 million contract this off-season. It is Baker Mayfield who played in his first Pro Bowl last season, after he crossed the 4,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. Mayfield’s contract is also for $80 million less than the Cousins pact.
However, the stats do not lie, and the over/under on passing yards in the game is higher for Mayfield (237.5) than for Cousins (229.5). Mayfield is also favored to lead in passing touchdowns, pass attempts, and completions.
By the numbers, by the eye test, and by the oddsmakers, Mayfield has been the superior quarterback in 2024.
Running Back Proposition Bets
This was supposed to be a breakout year for Bijan Robinson, last year’s first round pick of the Falcons. And while there have been some signs of the talent that lies within – he ran for 97 yards on 14 carries against the Eagles in Week 2 – he has just one touchdown, and last week he carried the ball just seven times.
Oddsmakers are expecting a better game from him this week, and they’ve set his over/under on rushing yards at 64.5. As an anytime touchdown scorer, he is paying -130, which are low odds for someone who has found the end zone only once in 2024.
No single player has emerged as the go-to running back for Tampa Bay, with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White getting nearly equal touches on the season. But Irving leads the team with 203 rush yards, and his over/under on Thursday night is 43.5. White has 115 yards rushing, and his line for Thursday is 34.5. White is the better receiver of the two, and he’s at 22.5 receiving yards in the game.
Pass Catcher Proposition Bets
The steadiest wide receiver in all of football is Mike Evans for the Buccaneers. He has gone over 1,000 yards in each of his previous 10 NFL seasons, and he now sits just three touchdowns away from 100 for his career. Evans has an over/under line of 62.5 receiving yards, and he is +125 to be an anytime touchdown scorer. His over/under on receptions is 4.5.
Chris Godwin has a reception over/under of 6.5, a receiving yardage line of 67.5, and he is +155 to score a touchdown. He’s +900 to be the game’s first touchdown scorer.
Drake London of the Falcons got off to a slow start with just 15 yards in Week 1 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his last two games, he went for 67 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs and 64 yards against the Saints, and both of those games are over his line of 62.5 this Thursday.
Tight end Kyle Pitts is still in search of a big game, now in his fourth season in the NFL. His over/under is 30.5 receiving yards.
London is +145 to score a touchdown and Pitts is +250. In 45 career games, Pitts has just seven career touchdowns.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
