
We have had 33 quarterbacks win Super Bowl MVP, and just seven running backs. We began our series of proposition bets for Super Bowl LIX last week with the quarterbacks, because of their ultimate importance in the game. But in this Super Bowl, there is a running back who might have the final say on which team wins.
Running Back Rushing Yards
This year, Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley became the ninth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, topping out at 2,005. He is also the first 2,000-yard rusher to play in the Super Bowl since Terrell Davis did it in Super Bowl XXXIII. Davis was the MVP of Super Bowl XXXII when he rushed for 157 yards and three touchdowns. At the Super Bowl in his 2,000-yard season, he “only” rushed for 102 yards.
Barkley is the most dynamic and explosive running back we’ve had in the Super Bowl since the back-to-back appearances by Davis, and big things are expected of him on Sunday. Barkley’s over/under on rushing yards is 113.5, and his longest rush of the game is 24.5 yards.
Barkley went over 114 yards in eight regular season games and all three playoff games. And 10 times this season, including the playoffs, his longest rush in a game was 25 yards or more.
The Kansas City Chiefs don’t come close to having a ground game like Philadelphia’s. Barkley himself has 13 100-yard rushing games this season. The Chiefs as a team only broke 100 yards on the ground 10 times, and only twice did an individual go for more than 100 yards in a game.
That was Kareem Hunt, who joined the Chiefs in Week 4 and went over 100 yards against the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He had a team-high 64 yards in the AFC Championship win.
The rushing yards line for Hunt is 46.5, and his longest run over/under is 11.5.
Kansas City’s other running back is Isiah Pacheco, who had a season-high 90 yards in Week 2, a game where he also broke his leg. Since returning in Week 13, he hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards. His Super Bowl line is 23.5 yards and his longest rush over/under is set at 8.5.
Running Back Receiving Yards
None of the three primary backs that we will see on Super Bowl Sunday are expected to be featured in the passing game. Barkley was targeted in every Eagles game this season, but he’s broken 10 yards receiving just once since Week 12. His over/under on receiving yards this week is 13.5.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid loves screen passes, but his primary targets for those are his wide receivers and tight ends. The over/under on receiving yards for Hunt is 6.5, while Pacheco is at 3.5. Samaje Perine, who iced the AFC Championship win for the Chiefs with a 17-yard catch, has an over/under this Sunday of 6.5 receiving yards.
Running Back Touchdowns
There may be no surer bet on Sunday than Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown. He is paying -190 as an anytime scorer, and he is the -450 favorite to be the first touchdown scorer. He scored the first touchdown against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game, and in 10 games this season, including the playoffs, he has found the end zone at least once.
Hunt is paying +135 to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, and at +900, he is the favorite to score the first touchdown of the game among the Chiefs. He has scored a touchdown in four straight games, including the playoffs.
Pacheco hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. But he does have four career postseason touchdowns, including a third quarter score in the Super Bowl two years ago against the Eagles. A bet on him to score this Sunday pays +265.

With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.