Super Bowl Contenders Snatch Victory from Jaws of Defeat

The tenth Sunday of the NFL season might have been the wildest. We had a pair of first place clashes, as the Pittsburgh Steelers visited the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions played the Houston Texans.

We also had division rivalry games between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons at the New Orleans Saints.

Miracle in Kansas City

To be an undefeated team in the NFL, you have to be great and you have to be lucky. That includes injury luck, which hasn’t been so great for the Kansas City Chiefs, but also lucky breaks in general. There, the Chiefs have thrived.

The Baltimore Ravens were a toe away from tying the game against the Chiefs in the closing seconds of Week 1. In order to win last week, the Chiefs had to go to overtime, where the coin toss went their way. And Sunday’s win over the Denver Broncos relied on the most improbable of endings. It’s still hard to believe it happened.

The Chiefs were leading by two as the final seconds were ticking away. But the Broncos had driven the ball deep into Kansas City territory, and were just running out the clock until they kicked an easy 35-yard field goal for the win. Kicker Will Lutz entered the game 67-for-73 for his career on kicks between 30 and 39 yards. Since 2000, the NFL had seen 107 kicks of 35 yards or less in the final five seconds of a game to tie or win it. Not one of those 107 kicks was blocked.

But these are the Chiefs. No one finds more creative ways to win than Kansas City, and the 108th such attempt in the NFL since 2000 was blocked by Leo Chenal. He destroyed his man at that line of scrimmage and then perfectly laid out to get a hand on the ball and preserve the Kansas City win. It’s nice to be good, but sometimes it is better to be lucky. The Broncos were the better team on Sunday at Arrowhead, but the Chiefs were the luckiest, and they are now 9-0 on the season.

They are now down to +450 odds to finish the 2024 regular season a perfect 17-0.

Detroit Lions Improbable Comeback

For Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, coming back from a double-digit deficit is the norm. He is the only quarterback in NFL history with a winning record in games he once trailed by at least 10 points. Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff has a long way to go to catch Mahomes in that stat, but he did just take part in an even more improbable comeback win at the Texans.

Not since the NFL merger in 1970 had a team thrown five interceptions, trailed by as many as 15 points, and still won the game. Now, thanks to a pair of long field goals in the final five minutes of the game, the Lions have broken that streak.

It was an ugly game for Goff. The Hail Mary interception at the end of the first half is not his fault, but the other four interceptions were on him. Only once before had he thrown four interceptions in a game – a 15-6 loss to the Chicago Bears in 2018. Only twice has he thrown three interceptions. Yet in his first five-interception game, he also threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns, both coming in the second half.

Jake Bates was working for Acme Brick in the Houston area less than a year ago. On Sunday night, he was good from 58 yards and 52 yards to win the game and move the Lions to 8-1 in the NFC.

Detroit is the +190 favorite to win the NFC, and they are paying +450 to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are the only team ahead of them at +400.

Steelers Get Big Road Win

The Pittsburgh Steelers are about to begin the division portion of their schedule. Beginning Sunday with the Baltimore Ravens, the Steelers play six of the last eight games inside the AFC North. So to go into this most important stretch, and especially starting with the second place Ravens, a win in Week 10 was critical.

There is no doubt now that moving to Russell Wilson three games ago was the right call. After beating two ho-hum opponents in the New York Jets and New York Giants, Wilson — against the very good Washington Commanders — threw another three touchdowns. Pittsburgh trailed by as many as 10 points in the third quarter before mounting the comeback and taking the lead with just over three minutes left.

It came on a vintage Wilson deep pass that dropped in beautifully over the shoulder of new wide receiver Mike Williams. Freed from the purgatory that is the Jets, Williams made himself right at home with the Steelers.

A bad Commanders possession followed, and Washington had one more chance to get the ball back on a fourth down from the Steelers offense. But a Wilson hard count got the Commanders defense to jump, and the game was over, 28-27.

The Ravens are still -200 favorites to win the AFC North, while Pittsburgh is paying +150. But that would likely flip if the Steelers can win this coming Sunday.