Quarterbacks Front and Center at this Week’s NFL Draft

Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has been called the best pure football player in this week’s NFL Draft. But he will not be drafted No. 1 overall, because even though he is a franchise changing talent, he doesn’t play quarterback. If you don’t have a star at that position, every move you make is designed to get you closer to finding that star.

That is why this draft, like 2023, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015, will have a quarterback selected No. 1 overall.

First Pick Odds

Back in February, you could still make a little money with a wager on USC’s Caleb Williams going first overall to the Chicago Bears. He was the heavy favorite, but at -900, there were still a few bucks to be made. Now, here we are two months later, and Williams is at -20000.

Drake Maye from North Carolina was paying +450 in February. Today, he is +3500, and is now in third place behind LSU’s Jayden Daniels, who is +2500. 

Second Pick Odds

After pick No. 1, no one really knows. Part of that reason is that picking No. 2 is the Washington Commanders, who have a new owner in Josh Harris at his first NFl Draft, and first-year general manager Adam Peters, who comes to Washington from San Francisco.

They need a quarterback, and they will take one with the second pick. In February, it was going to be Maye, with him paying -180 to be the selection. But as we sit here today, Daniels is the betting favorite at -160, with Maye now at +150.

Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy has been getting a lot of buzz the last couple of weeks, and he has met with the Commanders multiple times. But the buzz hasn’t led to much movement on the odds board. He’s still a distant third at +800.

Third Pick Odds

For the first time in a generation, someone other than Bill Belichick is making the draft picks for the New England Patriots, so they also enter the draft as a mystery. But they also are in desperate need of a quarterback, and they will get either Maye or Daniels, whomever is available.

Maye is the favorite at -145, because Daniels is the favorite at No. 2. If Maye is the Commanders pick, then the numbers on Daniels will change.

McCarthy was +750 to go to the Patriots two months ago. Now he is paying +320.

Fourth Pick Odds

It’s almost a certainty that quarterbacks will be drafted 1-2-3. The Arizona Cardinals sit at No. 4, and they have Kyler Murray at quarterback. It’s not impossible that they, too, feel like they want a reset at quarterback – the relationship with Murray has been a bit up-and-down. But Harrison Jr. is the expectation here, paying -225.

If the fourth pick ends up being someone else, like a quarterback, it will most likely be because a team like the Minnesota Vikings has traded up to draft one. That’s why, even though Harrison is a generational talent and the Cardinals definitely need him, McCarthy is a close +180 second-betting choice.

If McCarthy is the pick here, it’s unlikely that Arizona is the team making the pick.

First Round Quarterbacks

Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy are four quarterbacks that will not make it past the first round, but the over/under on QBs selected on the first day is 4.5, and the over is paying -255.

That means that oddsmakers think a fifth quarterback is destined to be drafted on Thursday night. Who will it be?

The draft position bet on Oregon’s Bo Nix is 32.5, which puts him right on the cusp of being a first round QB. Michael Penix Jr. from Washington is paying -240 to be a first round pick, and the Las Vegas Raiders are the favorite to draft him at +260.

At -175, Nix is a big favorite to be selected by the Denver Broncos. They pick at No. 12, which is considered quite high for Nix. Don’t be surprised if the Broncos trade back, but still grab him as their quarterback.