Polymarket Bettor Lost $3M on Tyson-Paul Fight, But Won $11M on Trump Election Victory 


A high-stakes cryptocurrency bettor lost $3 million betting on the Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson boxing match over the weekend, and that’s just part of the crazy November they’ve had.

Reports emerged last week of some massive bets on Donald Trump’s November 5 presidential election victory via prediction market Polymarket. The one $85 million winner took most of the headlines, but others won big, too. That included one bettor known only by the account name “zxgngl” who profited $11 million when Trump defeated Kamala Harris to return to the White House.

The high-limit bettor was also back at it again over this weekend, wagering $3 million on the underdog and 58 -year-old Mike Tyson in his fight against 27-year-old YouTuber turned Jake Paul. 

Paul defeated Tyson by unanimous decision over eight rounds on Friday night in Texas in what most have deemed a not particularly competitive or entertaining fight. 

The Betting

Zxgngl was by far the biggest loser in the Paul-Tyson fight at Polymarket. His $3.4 million loss was way ahead of the $105,000 loser in second place. Shortly before the fight, Polymarket bettors had Paul at 62% likely to win and Tyson at 29%. Some 11% of bettors thought it might be a draw or otherwise not finish with a winner. 

Zxgngl bought 11 million shares in Tyson on Friday at around 33 cents each. As they did so in multiple bets, the odds changed slightly each time, which meant that the wagers totaled $3.6 million. 

Despite Paul being the overwhelming favorite by number of backers, the total amount of money put down on Tyson at Polymarket was marginally higher. Across bets on both competitors, more than $63 million was put down on the fight via the offshore crypto prediction market.

The Fight 

The controversial fight was held in Arlington, Texas, and livestreamed on Netflix. Paul was reportedly paid $40 million for his role in the night’s proceedings. 

58-year-old Tyson was known as one of the world’s hardest-hitting boxers back in his mid-’90s heyday. He has suffered well-publicized health problems since his last professional bout in 2005, including in the run up to last Friday’s fight. 

Paul is a social media-star-turned boxer who has fought celebrities and retired boxing and MMA legends in exhibition bouts before facing Tyson. 

The contest ended in a clear, unanimous decision victory for Paul. Many questioned the legitimacy and ethics of pitting a 58-year-old with known health issues, legend or no, against a prime years Paul in the early stages of his boxing career.

Interestingly, there’s a still-running contract on Polymarket to predict whether or not the fight was conclusively rigged. Only 1% of bettors taking part seem to think that legal evidence of a fixup in the fight can be proven before the end of November. 

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