Philadelphia Phillies – The Wisdom of Betting on the Team

On Wednesday, the Philadelphia Phillies improved their record to 36-14 with an 11-4 win over the Texas Rangers, giving them the best 50-game record since the Seattle Mariners in 2001. Seattle went on to finish with 116 wins that season, tying the record for victories in the modern era (since 1901).

The Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball for the third straight year, making it to the World Series in 2022 and playing in the National League Championship Series in 2023. But manager Rob Thomson was quick to remind everyone that just because they’re on pace to win 116 games like the Mariners, that is a guarantee of nothing.

“What did they do in the end?”

The Mariners lost in the ALCS to the New York Yankees that year, and with a very good Phillies team falling short in each of the last two seasons, Thomson knows that it could easily happen again. But what do the odds say? How should we view the Phillies as a team to bet?

Phillies Win Totals

Hopefully, when the season began, you jumped on the total wins line for the Phillies. Back in March, it was set at 89.5, which was the sixth-best in baseball. They could play below .500 for the rest of the season (54-58) and still make it to 90 wins.

But there is no reason that any such slide is coming. Certainly not in the short-term, with them beginning a series on Friday against the Colorado Rockies, the team with the fewest wins in the National League.

Over the long-term, the Phillies will continue to benefit from playing in the N.L. East, a division that has only one other truly competitive team, the Atlanta Braves. It also has three of the five worst teams in the league – the New York Mets, Miami Marlins, and Washington Nationals.

It’s worth noting that the Braves were a 100-plus win team in 2022 and 2023, but this season they are on pace to fall short of the century mark. The loss of starting pitcher Spencer Strider for the season makes them far less formidable.

The Phillies are now paying -120 to eclipse the 100-win mark, which should happen to this team, assuming they stay healthy. But one bet that remains out there that has great value is the +400 wager on Philadelphia to finish the season with the best record in baseball.

Through Wednesday, the Phillies had 36 wins and a .720 winning percentage. The Yankees are two wins behind them, but have played an extra game. The Los Angeles Dodgers have played two extra games and are three wins behind the Phillies. Only the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals also have at least 30 wins.

Phillies in the Postseason

With six teams getting into the playoffs from each league, it’s almost a certainty that the Phillies will be one of them, according to the oddsmakers. They are paying -50000 to make the postseason. The Braves are also -50000, and the Dodgers aren’t even on the board.

It’s split on which team, the Phillies or Braves, will win the division. Both contenders are at -115 to win the N.L. East, and no one else is less than +13000. It’s only May, and this is down to a two-team race.

The Dodgers are still the pacesetters in the National League, and they are paying +135 to win the pennant. The Phillies are +390, which means that you can get three times the payout if they win over L.A. That, too, is a good value bet.

To win the World Series, you can get +750 on the Phillies, which ranks them fourth behind the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees. When the season began, a bet on the Phillies was paying +1400.

With Bryce Harper once again in the MVP mix (+1200), Alec Bohm turning into one of the best cleanup hitters in baseball, and Zack Wheeler (+350) and Ranger Suarez (+500) among the Cy Young favorites, the odds on season-long success for the Phillies will only shorten. If you didn’t jump on the Phillies in March, now is the time. They are winning now, they will win all summer long, and they are a good bet to keep winning into October.