
Before the Wild Card Round kicked off on Saturday, the NFL said that it would reexamine the way the league seeds for the NFL Playoffs. Three teams with better records went on the road this past weekend because division winners automatically host a first-round playoff game, and wild card teams automatically go on the road.
Turns out, the pearl-clutching was premature.
The home team division winners were 5-1 over Wild Card weekend, and in two of the matchups that featured higher win totals going on the road, it wasn’t close. The 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers went to the 10-7 Houston Texans and got blown out by 20 points. The division-winning Texans showed that they absolutely deserved to host a playoff game.
Monday, the Los Angeles Rams were the home team because of winning the NFC West with just 10 wins. Meanwhile, the mighty Minnesota Vikings won 14 games, but were the road team as the No. 5 seed. Does anyone who watched that dismantling think the Vikings deserved to be at home? Minnesota gave up nine sacks to a Rams defense that held Justin Jefferson to just 58 yards, and L.A. rolled, 27-9, despite the game being moved to Arizona, where there was a crowd mostly cheering for the Vikings.
The seeding worked. The home teams dominated. As we move on to the Divisional Round, seven of the eight remaining teams won their divisions. This is as it should be.
Betting the Home Team
Hopefully, you didn’t buy the hype of the Vikings and Chargers, the two road teams this weekend that were favorites. Neither came close to winning their games or covering their spreads.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a field goal favorite to beat the Washington Commanders, and they were the lone home team to lose over the weekend. But as the home team and the division champion, they kept it close, losing by just inches on a doinked-in field goal.
The other home teams this weekend – the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles – all went into their Wild Card matchup as favorites, and all of them easily covered their spread.
For the weekend, the home teams finished 5-1 straight up, and 5-1 against the spread.
A year ago in the Wild Card Round, the home teams also went 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread.
The Wild Card Round is fun, and it has more games than the Divisional Round. But the best and most competitive football of the year is what lies ahead this weekend. A year ago, three of the four Divisional Round matchups were one-score games, with the home teams going 2-2 against the spread. Two years ago, the ATS spread record for home teams was also 2-2.
The Seventh Seed
If the NFL really does want to change the playoff format, they should consider returning to six teams per conference. Instead of watching a clearly overmatched Denver Broncos team flail against the Buffalo Bills, give the Bills a first-round bye. Instead of giving us a Packers offense that turned the ball over four times, give the Eagles back the bye that used to belong to the No. 2 seed.
Since the NFL went to a seventh playoff team per conference, setting up matchups between the last team to make the playoffs and the teams that used to get the week off, the No. 2 seeds are 9-1 straight up. The lone second-seed to lose in the Wild Card Round a year ago was the Dallas Cowboys.
Against the spread, the No. 2 seeds are 7-3 in the Wild Card Round, despite the average spread in these matchups coming in at more than nine points.

With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.