NFL: Wild Card Round Betting Preview

On Thursday evening, the NFL made the decision to move the final game of the Wild Card Round between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams out of Los Angeles and to Arizona. The league cited public safety concerns around the widespread and ongoing wildfires that have devastated large parts of the Los Angeles area.

Even for residents miles away from the fires, the air quality is hazardous. And police and other first responders that would be required to host an NFL playoff game at SoFi Stadium have much more important jobs to do.

Prior to the decision by the NFL, the Los Angeles Kings of the NHL and the Los Angeles Lakers of the NBA postponed scheduled games for this week.

The game will kick off at State Fame Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, at 8 p.m. ET on Monday night.

Saturday

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans

Last year, the Houston Texans played in the first game of the Wild Card Round at home, and it was good luck. They dominated the Cleveland Browns, 45-14. Houston is hoping for some of the same magic this year. But unlike 12 months ago, they are the underdogs in this one.

The Texans won their division and Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is one of the four starting QBs in the playoffs that has never won a playoff game. But Herbert is favored by a field goal, and a disappointing season in Houston is predicted to fall short of last season.

It is worth noting that L.A. has been one of the best teams against the spread this season, going 10-2 when they are favored. They are 5-1 as road favorites and 7-2 ATS in all road games.

The Texans are 3-3 against the spread as underdogs, and 1-1 ATS as home dogs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

When looking at the direction both of these teams are headed, you can see why the Baltimore Ravens are almost double-digit favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers. No playoff team looked more out of sync than the Steelers did down the stretch, and the Ravens won their last four games by an average of 23 points. One of those games was a 34-17 win at home against the Steelers.

Still, these are the Steelers, forever a thorn in the side of the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, and Pittsburgh did beat them back in November. Going back to 2020, the Steelers are 8-2 against the Ravens and 7-3 against the spread.

Never in the history of these two rivals have the Ravens been favored by this many points, and the last time they were more than a touchdown favorite was 2009.

Sunday

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

After the doubleheader of NFL football on Saturday, our Sunday triple-header begins with the Denver Broncos, the last team to get in for the AFC, at the Buffalo Bills, the first team to clinch their division this season.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had an MVP-worthy season, even if he ends up losing to Lamar Jackson. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has had an Offensive Rookie of the Year-worthy season, even as he is expected to lose out to Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.

On paper, this is far too interesting a matchup to have a point spread this big. Nix is a rookie, and he is still prone to making rookie mistakes. In Week 17, he made an incredible pass to take the Cincinnati Bengals to overtime. But twice in the extra period, he missed open passes that would have clinched the game. Still, he does make incredible plays like the pass to tie.

Denver also has an All-Pro cornerback and Defensive Player of the Year favorite in Patrick Surtain II, plus the best pass rush in the NFL, leading the league in sacks and ranking second in pass rush win rate. Denver finished the season ranked fourth in defensive DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average).

But the Bills have Josh Allen, and as home favorites, they are 5-3 against the spread.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Jalen Hurts was a full participant in practice on Thursday, which is a good sign that he will return to the field on Sunday after missing the last two weeks with a concussion and finger injury. Saquon Barkley is also rested after forgoing his opportunity to chase Eric Dickerson’s NFL single-season rushing record. So all signs are a “go” for the Philadelphia Eagles, who are hosting the Green Bay Packers.

Jordan Love is also expected to be back for the Packers, but the elbow injury that he suffered last week against the Chicago Bears is still bothering him. It’s affected his grip and throwing motion, and he has been limited this week at practice. 

The Eagles have been good to bettors all season long, going 11-6 against the spread, including in Week 1, when they won and covered against these same Packers in Brazil. The Packers have been a much more average 9-8 ATS, but they are 2-1 as road underdogs.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

This game doesn’t feature MVP front-runners Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, but this might be the most fun quarterback matchup of the Wild Card Round. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is a rookie version of Jackson, but mature beyond his years and seemingly always able to pull a last-minute touchdown out of his hat to win the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield plays the position like he’s test driving a Bugatti on the Autobahn. Braking is for losers, as is being cautious as a quarterback.

This is the first of many playoff games in the career of Daniels, while this is the fifth playoff start for Mayfield in his up-and-down career. He made two starts as a Cleveland Brown, and this is now his third start in two seasons in Tampa Bay. Last year, Mayfield and the Bucs were 1-1 in the playoffs against the spread.

Monday

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were home underdogs before the game was moved to Arizona. Even as Vivid Seats forecast a 90% Rams home crowd for the game at SoFi Stadium, they were just +1.5 against the Vikings. With much of that home field lost because of moving the game to the Arizona Cardinals home stadium (tickets did go on sale for Rams season ticket holders first), the line has moved to 2.5 points.

As an underdog this season, the Rams are 5-4 against the spread, and 4-2 as home underdogs, even as this home game gets an asterisk. It took the betting public quite some time to figure out that the Vikings are a really good team, and they went 11-5-1 against the spread this season, including 5-0 to begin the season. They had another streak of four straight wins against the spread at the end of the season, before losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 18.