NFL Week 9 Betting Preview

When the game is over in Kansas City on Monday night (the Chiefs are -8.5 favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), there will be nine weeks of the NFL regular season behind us, and nine weeks still to come. For the teams that think they should be playing deep into January, now is the time to prove it.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6)

The Buffalo Bills have all but wrapped up the AFC East. A win on Sunday, and they will have a four-game lead in the division. No other division in the NFL has a separation between first and second place of more than two games.

For the Miami Dolphins, this is it. This is when they begin the climb back into the relevancy they had when the season started. The Dolphins are now +370 to make the playoffs, when just two months ago they were -150. The Dolphins were +200 to win the division when the season started,and now that bet pays +2200.

With Tua Tagovailoa back last week, the Dolphins looked like a functional football team, even as they lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals. This week, they have to get back to playing explosive offensive football if they have any hope of keeping up with Josh Allen and the Bills.

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8)

The Denver Broncos are 5-3 and actually ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC’s current playoff picture. But do we really trust that the Broncos are good? Are they as good or better than the Ravens? The point spread says no, and the current playoff odds say no.

Denver, even at 5-3, is still paying plus money to make the postseason at +125. A big improvement from the +700 they were paying in August, but they remain a playoff underdog. Baltimore, even coming off its loss at Cleveland, is -1400 to make the playoffs.

The betting public, bookmakers, NFL analysts, and your eyes tell you that the Ravens are still heads-and-shoulders better than the Broncos. Lamar Jackson is leaps and bounds above rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

But, this Denver defense is absolutely for real. They rank third in points allowed, third in yards allowed, and second in the NFL with 30 sacks. This will be a true test for Jackson and the Ravens.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Don’t mistake the final score of 30-24 as an indication that the Dallas Cowboys played the San Francisco 49ers close last week. They trailed by 17 points in the fourth quarter, and the final outcome was never in doubt. A pair of garbage time touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb was only window dressing.

Dallas is not a good football team right now, and they don’t have any answers. The “all-in” season for Jerry Jones is proving to be one of their worst under head coach Mike McCarthy.

On the other sideline, we have the 5-3 Atlanta Falcons, who beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week to take sole possession of first place in the NFC South. Tight end Kyle Pitts has finally been unlocked four seasons into his career, and Kirk Cousins has proven to be the right choice this off-season at quarterback.

He’s had two bad games, but he’s had six really good games, and in Atlanta’s two wins over the Bucs, Cousins has 785 yards and eight touchdowns. Cousins is now the +140 favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

In the logjam that is the top of NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals are the team currently playing the best football. They are coming off a big road win at Miami, which followed a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Two weeks prior to that, they won at the 49ers.

Kyler Murray has been outstanding at quarterback, throwing for more than 300 yards against the Dolphins, and topping that mark for the first time since Week 8 two years ago. And Marvin Harrison Jr. looks every bit as good as the scouts said he would be. Last week was his second game over 100 yards, and his five touchdown catches is tied for fourth in the NFL.

The other big name rookie in this game is Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, who is coming off his worst game since Week 1. He lost the head-to-head matchup with Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders,  but his overall trajectory is still rising, and he should do well against the 27th-ranked defense.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers

Fingers and toes crossed that Jordan Love is able to play for the Green Bay Packers. He injured his groin last week, but he has been practicing gingerly this week, and reports are that he “has a very real chance of playing.”

Let’s hope so, because this is the game of the week, with first place in the best division in the NFL on the line. The Detroit Lions are in first place in the NFC North at 6-1, but right behind them are the Packers at 6-2. The Lions have won five straight games, which is the second-longest current winning streak in the NFL. The Packers have won four straight, which is the third-longest streak. The Lions lead the NFL in scoring, the Packers are sixth. In total yards per game, the two teams are fifth and sixth, separated by just two yards. 

The one difference is that the Lions are blowing teams away, while the Packers are keeping it close. The Packers last two wins have been by a total of five points. The Lions won two of their three October games by 38 points.