As NFL fans and NFL bettors, this is the best time of year. Not only do games have extra meaning when it comes to the playoff races – like the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, giving their playoff hopes a huge boost with a win over the Denver Broncos – but the NFL begins playing on Saturday.
We get more days of NFL football each weekend, and more hours to shout at the television.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
The NFL used to leave Christmas Day to the NBA. Not anymore, and with no regard for when Christmas falls in the week. Wednesday, not a problem. We’ll just have the same four teams that play on Saturday complete the round-robin tournament of sorts, and have them swap matchups for Christmas.
The first of two of those four teams are the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. Both have already clinched their divisions in the AFC, but this game is important for seeding purposes. Kansas City wants to maintain its lead for the top seed in the AFC, and Houston still has a chance to move up to the third seed.
The biggest news is that Patrick Mahomes will play. He was roughed up at Cleveland on Sunday, as the Chiefs continue to have issues on the offensive line. But the sprained ankle he suffered was deemed to be mild, and he practiced all week and is ready to go.
New left tackle D.J. Humphries will be out again because of a hamstring, so once again the health of Mahomes might be an issue.
Texans at Chiefs Proposition Bets
A hobbled Mahomes is still a top-tier quarterback, and he may have Hollywood Brown on the field for the first time this season. The over/under on passing yards for Mahomes is 226.5, and he has even odds (+100) to throw for two touchdown passes. That was his total last week in Cleveland, and a number he’s hit in six other games.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud had two TD passes last week against the Miami Dolphins, and he is +150 to hit that mark on Saturday. His over/under on passing yards is 231.5.
Texans running back Joe Mixon has been feast or famine of late. After four straight 100-yard games, he’s gone for 46, 109, 22, 101, and 23 last week. His rushing yards line for Saturday is 59.5. The Chiefs have Isiah Pacheco at 55.5 and Kareem Hunt at 27.5. Mixon is -120 to score a touchdown, and Pacheco is +115.
Nico Collins is the top pass catcher for the Texans, with an over/under of 83.5 yards. Tank Dell is at 40.5. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is at 50.5, and DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy have lines of 39.5. Worthy has the second-most touchdowns this season for rookie wide receivers (seven), and he is a good value play at +245 to score again in this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
On Christmas, the Chiefs play the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Texans play the Baltimore Ravens, so those are the two opponents in the other Saturday matchup. And what’s not to love about ending the day with division rivals that are battling for first place.
Right now, the Steelers are in the top spot, but they were just manhandled by the Philadelphia Eagles. The week before, the Ravens also lost to the Eagles, but most recently they had a get-right game against the New York Giants where Lamar Jackson was spectacular.
Steelers at Ravens Proposition Bets
Jackson has historically struggled against the Steelers in his career, as has Baltimore. He is 1-4 against Pittsburgh as a starter, and the Ravens have lost eight of nine, including earlier this season. Jackson has five touchdowns to eight interceptions in his career vs. Pittsburgh, but at the same time he has been spectacular this season, with 34 touchdown passes to just three interceptions.
Which history matters more? The current opponent, or the absolute heater that Jackson has been on this season?
Oddsmakers are splitting the difference. Jackson has an over/under on passing yards of 228.5. His rushing yards prop bet is at 47.5, he’s even odds to throw at least two touchdowns, and he’s +200 to score a touchdown himself.
On the other side, Russell Wilson has struggled his last two weeks, throwing for 158 and 128. His passing yards line is 204.5, and he is +155 to throw at least two touchdowns.
After touchdowns in 11 straight games to begin the season, Derrick Henry has failed to score in three straight. Still, he’s the most likely to score in this game at -190. His rushing yards line is 85.5, which is 20 yards better than what he rushed for in Week 11 at Pittsburgh.
The Steelers top back is Najee Harris, and his over/under on rush yards is 47.5. He pays +150 to score a touchdown.
Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman scored twice last week, and he is paying +210 to score in this game. Tight end Mark Andrews has scored in seven of his last nine games, and is +195 to score on Saturday. Zay Flowers has only scored in three games this season, but his TD payout on Saturday is only +140.
Flowers has the highest receiving yards over/under at 61.5. For Pittsburgh, their highest receiving yards line is the 37.5 for Calvin Austin. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is next at 34.5. As touchdown scorers, Freiermuth pays +220 and Austin is +265.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
