NFL Week 15 Betting Preview

As we enter Week 15, there are seven NFL teams out of the playoff picture, and six others who have no realistic shot at the playoffs. One of those six is the San Francisco 49ers, whose loss on Thursday dropped their playoff probability to less than 1%. 

That leaves us with four spots already taken – the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas CIty Chiefs, and Buffalo Bills – and 15 other teams battling it out for the remaining 10 postseason slots.

Washington Commanders (-7.5) at New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are one of those teams in purgatory. Math hasn’t eliminated them from playoff contention, but eight losses and an injury to Derek Carr has. They host the Washington Commanders who suddenly find themselves being pushed for the final wild card spot by Thursday night’s winner, the Los Angeles Rams.

Washington still has an outside shot at winning the NFC East, with the Philadelphia Eagles on the schedule next weekend. But most important, they need to take care of the teams they should beat, and secure a wild card slot.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-3)

The Houston Texans are on cruise control until the playoffs, all but locked into first place in the AFC South and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. Life is much different for the Miami Dolphins, who are fighting for their playoff lives and once again grappling with a season of missed expectations.

With a win at Houston, their playoff probabilities increase to 32%. But if the Dolphins fail again on the road – they’ve won just two of six road games – those probabilities drop to 5%. And that would extend their playoff game winless streak to 24 years, which is currently the longest in the NFL.

One player who isn’t going to the playoffs with the Dolphins, even if they make it, is Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ and Miami mutually agreed to part ways, and he is now on waivers until Monday.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-4.5)

There is no game on Sunday’s schedule that swings playoff probabilities more than the Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos.

If Denver wins, their postseason probabilities increase to 88%. A loss drops them to 47%, and they would then face a must-win Thursday night game at the Los Angeles Chargers. The Colts, who are currently on the outside of the playoffs and looking in, increase their probability to 55% with a win at Denver. A loss drops them to 8%, and all but seals their postseason fate.

Adding extra intrigue to this game are the two young quarterbacks facing the first playoff chases of their careers. Anthony Richardson, who has been up and down for Indianapolis, needs to be way up against a good Broncos defense. Bo Nix just needs to do what he has been doing. The most surprising quarterback of the season, he is now +200 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

What makes great wide receivers great is their desire for the football. Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown let it be known this week that he isn’t completely happy with the Eagles nine-game winning streak because he isn’t getting the ball enough, and quarterback Jalen Hurts is to blame.

Now the two players are singing Kumbaya, and saying all is well with the Philly offense. But considering how the team blew up down the stretch last season, going from 10-1 to 11-6, any crack in the chemistry is worrying.

Also worrying is the Pittsburgh Steelers defense, which may drag this team into the AFC’s No. 2 seed with a win on Sunday, and possibly to the top seed with a game against Kansas CIty still looming on Christmas Day.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

After giving up 44 points to the Rams last week, a Buffalo Bills defense in need of direction now gets the best offense in the NFL, the Detroit Lions. Even Josh Allen, who has become the heavy -400 favorite to win MVP, can’t do it alone.

The over/under on the Bills at Lions is 54.5, which is over a touchdown more than any other game this weekend. We know there will be fireworks. We know the two offenses are going to move the ball. We know the two quarterbacks are going to make their plays.

Whichever defense can force a turnover and get a stop or two is the defense that will win the day.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look like the only team with any interest in winning the NFC South, and at the moment, they would be the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs. The Los Angeles Chargers are a doinked field goal away from a ninth win and a comfortable spot in the postseason picture.

Making up for that near-miss in Kansas City last week would be big in this game. But more important for L.A. is next Thursday’s game against the Broncos. So don’t be too surprised if the Chargers do what they can to protect a banged up Justin Herbert and make sure he’s healthy for next week. Even with a loss to the Buccaneers, the Chargers would still have an 81% probability of making the playoffs.

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

The Arizona Cardinals are not dead yet, but in reality the NFC West race has been reduced to two teams, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have already improved to 8-6 with their win at San Francisco, and the Seahawks now need to win to keep their one-game lead in the division.

It won’t be easy. In fact, they are home underdogs to a Green Bay Packers team that would be in first place in other divisions, but instead are only a wild card team in the NFC North. And since a Week 1 loss in Brazil to the Eagles, the Packers only losses have come inside their own division. They’ve also scored at least 30 points in three straight weeks, and they will test that Seattle defense.