NFL Week 11 Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Eagles made the first statement of Week 11, using a dominating defense and Saquon Barkley to beat the Washington Commanders. That further cements them as the best team in the NFC East. The Eagles outgained the Commanders, 434-264, and Barkley made another case for himself as Offensive Player of the Year.

Barkley ran for 146 yards, his league-leading sixth 100-yard game of the season, and he added two more touchdowns to bring his total to 10. He also was tackled on the one-yard line in another sequence, with the touchdown going to quarterback Jalen Hurts on the next play. It was the ninth time this season that Barkley has taken the ball to the one, only to have Hurts get the touchdown on seven of them.

Give four of those nine TDs to Barkley, and he would be tied with Derrick Henry for the NFL lead.

We began the week with a battle for first place in the NFC East, and we begin Sunday with first place on the line in the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in first place and at home, but they are the underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens in the early window on Sunday. The Ravens are coming off a near-loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, with multiple controversial no-calls in a game-deciding two-point conversion. The Steelers are coming off a one-point win over the Washington Commanders.

The most intriguing matchup is at quarterback, where Lamar Jackson is the favorite to win his third MVP award (-110), and Russell Wilson appears to be fully back from the dead. Baltimore’s big off-season move was the signing of Henry, who has been everything the team could hope for and more. The Steelers traded for Wilson in the off-season in a move that has worked out far better than anyone expected.

Since Wilson was elevated to QB1 three games ago, he is 3-0, he has six touchdown passes to just one interception, and he’s averaging 245 yards. Jackson over the last three weeks is 2-1, nine touchdowns to no interceptions, and 286 yards passing per game.

Since 2020, the Steelers are 7-1 against the Ravens, and 6-2 against the spread.

Green Bay Packers (-5) at Chicago Bears

For the 209th time, the Green Bay Packers play the Chicago Bears, and the Packers have the chance to end the 2024 season for their longtime rivals. Chicago came into the season full of hope, and what was clearly premature talk about a Super Bowl. Instead, the Bears are in last place, their rookie quarterback has struggled, and this week they fired their offensive coordinator.

For the Bears, these final eight games are all about retrieving the confidence of Caleb Williams and preparing him for the new Chicago coaching staff in 2025.

For the Packers, it’s about staying in the playoff picture and getting the wins that appear to be easiest. At 6-3, they are currently the sixth-seed in the NFC. But they still have remaining games with the San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, and Minnesota Vikings.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2)

There is reason for concern for the Denver Broncos. One of the feel-good stories of the year has been the Broncos turnaround, with rookie quarterback Bo Nix showing that he might have been the most NFL-ready of all the rookies. Now they have lost two straight games, and the last loss at Kansas City comes with a hangover. After missing out on the road upset against the undefeated Chiefs because of a blocked field goal, head coach Sean Payton admitted that the loss would stay with them awhile.

But it better not extend into this Sunday, because they are home hosts to another first place team, the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is coming off perhaps the worst loss of the week, losing to the dysfunctional New Orleans Saints just days after they fired their head coach.

Bijan Robinson has been great, Kirk Cousins has been good. But moving the ball against the Broncos defense presents a very tough task.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Christian McCaffrey is back, the San Francisco 49ers are back, and at just a half-game behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West, they are back in the Super Bowl hunt. At the moment, the 49ers are out of the playoff picture and looking in. But a win on Sunday has them just a half-game out of the playoffs.

And they need this win, because the schedule remains challenging. In Week 12, the Niners are at the Packers, in Week 13 they are at the Buffalo Bills, and they have the Lions and Cardinals to close out the season.

The Seattle Seahawks are coming off their bye week, and before that they were losers in five of six games, including a loss to the 49ers in Seattle when the Niners were at their injured worst. This is a must-win for the Seahawks, who are currently paying -900 to miss the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

The Chiefs are 9-0 and the Bills are 8-2, and they have the best combined record for a Week 11 matchup since the 8-1 Chiefs played the 8-1 Rams in 2018. That game finished 54-51, and the Rams went from that win all the way to the Super Bowl.

Don’t expect another 100 points this week. The Chiefs do have JuJu Smith-Schuster back from a hamstring injury, but running back Isaiah Pacheco is still out. Out for the Bills is rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman, tight end Dalton Kincaid is banged up,, and even though defensive leader Matt Milano is back at practice, he will not play.

Also not playing is Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker, who popped up on the injury report on Thursday with a knee that requires arthroscopic surgery. He has been a Bills killer over the years, hitting 8-of-9 field goals in five regular season games and 7-of-8 on field goals in three playoff wins. The Chiefs don’t win that 2021 Divisional Round playoff game in overtime if Butker doesn’t hit a 49-yard field goal to end regulation.

The missing kicker aside, this is about the two quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. No quarterback has beaten Mahomes head-to-head more than Allen, with three wins. No quarterback has beaten Allen head-to-head more than Mahomes, with four wins.

Along with the Ravens at Steelers, the Chiefs and Bills give us an advanced look at what to expect in the AFC playoffs.