NFL Week 1 Overreactions

As much as we love the first weekend of the NFL season, the tradition of reacting and overreacting to the 16 games on the first Tuesday of the season is almost just as fun.

The San Francisco 49ers Can Win Without Christian McCaffrey

Just before Monday night’s kickoff between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers, we got word that Christian McCaffrey wouldn’t play. The calf injury that we thought was getting better ultimately kept him on the sideline.

Getting the start in place of CMC was Jordan Mason, and he was spectacular. Mason ran for 147 yards on 28 carries (his most carries since high school), and San Francisco didn’t miss a beat without last year’s Offensive Player of the Year. The final score was 32-19, and it wasn’t that close.

So yes, the 49ers can win without McCaffrey. But winning a game at home against a Jets team trying to find itself is different from winning a Super Bowl. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has proven that his system is built to succeed. It’s why a seventh-round pick like Brock Purdy can be so good at quarterback, and it’s why an undrafted player like Mason can have such a big game.

But McCaffrey is a special player, and there’s a reason why he’s still +1300 to repeat as OPOY, even without playing in Week 1. The 49ers are +550 to win the Super Bowl for a number of reasons, and McCaffrey is one of the big ones.

The Cincinnati Bengals are a Mess

The Cincinnati Bengals played the worst game of Week 1, and wiped out survivor pool players all across the country. But they still have loads of talent on the team, and even after getting handled at home by a bad New England Patriots team, the Bengals will still compete for a playoff spot.

Cincinnati never plays well in September. Last season, they lost in Week 1 to the Cleveland Browns, 24-3, and through four weeks they were 1-3. In 2022, the Bengals began the season with two straight losses, but still made it to the AFC Championship Game.

Deciding not to pay Tee Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase is a choice that may ultimately doom the Bengals in the long term. But the Bengals are still -125 to make the playoffs because they are still a good team. Joe Burrow, even after a really bad opening week, is still +1700 to win the MVP, which ranks him seventh overall.

The Las Vegas Raiders Miss Derek Carr

This is not an overreaction, but the actual situation that the Las Vegas Raiders find themselves in. Derek Carr has his limitations, but he also looks and plays like an NFL starting quarterback, which the Raiders don’t have.

Since benching Carr at the end of the 2022 season, the Raiders are 8-12, and with no direction at quarterback. Their starter in 2025 isn’t on the roster, and won’t be until at least three years after the team decided to change direction. That kind of roster management is a how a team misses the playoffs year after year (they are -1000 to miss the playoffs again) and goes four decades without winning a Super Bowl.

Meanwhile in New Orleans, Carr has the Saints at +120 to make the playoffs, and +190 to win the NFC South.

The Signing of Kirk Cousins is a Bust

It’s a stretch to say that Justin Fields outplayed Kirk Cousins when the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, 18-10. But Cousins was paid $100 million in guarantees by the Falcons, while Fields is making $3.3 million as a backup.

This was supposed to be a new offensive era in Atlanta, and it was anything but that. Drake London had just two catches on three targets, Kyle Pitts had three catches on three targets, and in the second half of the game, the Falcons had three total first downs and just 26 net yards.

The Falcons are still the betting favorite to win the NFC South, paying +145. But Cousins has fallen to +750 to win Comeback Player of the Year, which are the same odds for his replacement in Minnesota, Sam Darnold. Darnold signed with the Vikings for $8.75 million in guarantees.