NFL: Should the San Francisco 49ers Panic?

Through seven weeks of play, the San Francisco 49ers have just three wins. The team that began this season as the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for a second straight year is currently behind 10 teams in the conference standings. 

They’ve lost games to the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs, which is nothing to get too worried about. Those two teams are a combined 11-1. A lot of teams have lost to the Vikings and Chiefs.

A much bigger concern are the losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals, and the way they lost to the Chiefs. The 49ers defense could not stop the run on Sunday against Kansas City, and quarterback Brock Purdy threw three interceptions. Purdy had a four-interception game last season against the Baltimore Ravens. But before Sunday, that was his only game with more than two picks.

His quarterback rating of 36.7 against the Chiefs was the lowest of his career. Against the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, his QB rating was 89.3.

Postseason Odds

Christian McCaffrey remains out, Brandon Aiyuk suffered a knee injury that is going to keep him out for the rest of the season, and the 49ers are below .500. The injuries are a new problem for San Francisco, but the record isn’t. Just two years ago, the 49ers lost to the Chiefs at home, dropping them to 3-4 on the season. That was the last time they lost that year until they played the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game. 

The Niners rattled off 10 straight regular season wins, and posted big playoff wins against the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys that year. They have been here before, and they were able to thrive with their backs against the wall.

Even as the Niners look at their rather pedestrian record through seven games, they are still only one game behind the division leader, the Seahawks, and the Niners won at Seattle in Week 6. Not only are the 49ers still in good position to win the NFC West, they remain the favorite. The 49ers are +115 favorites to win the division, with Seattle at +270.

To win the NFC, San Francisco remains the second betting favorite at +600, only trailing the Detroit Lions. The Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, and the first-place Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all have longer odds than the Niners.

To win the Super Bowl, the 49ers are also still among the favorites. The Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Lions all have shorter odds, but the 49ers are fourth in the NFL at +1100. That puts them ahead of the Buffalo Bills, Vikings, Eagles, Packers, and Houston Texans.

Rest of the Regular Season Schedule

The 49ers play at home next Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys, a game they will be favored to win. Then they will have their bye week, and perhaps after that, McCaffrey will be ready to come back. However, there has been no target timeline given for his return.

Following the bye, the schedule gets pretty challenging.

In Week 10, the Niners are at the Buccaneers. In Week 11, they play the team they are chasing, the Seahawks. Then it is consecutive road trips to Green Bay and Buffalo, and by Weeks 12 and 13, the weather in those two cities can be a factor for a team from California.

San Francisco hosts the Chicago Bears in Week 14, which is no longer an easy win, and then they host the Rams, a team that has already beaten them. Road trips to Miami and Arizona in Weeks 16 and 18 are very winnable, but in-between those two games, they host the Lions. Not only is Detroit the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, they will be looking for revenge for last year’s NFC Championship loss.

Getting past the Seahawks is the only thing the Niners need to do to get into the playoffs, and that might only take nine or 10 wins. But the schedule is tough enough, and the rest of the conference is good enough, that San Francisco is unlikely to do better than a third or fourth seed.

Panic? No. It’s too soon for that. But if 49ers fans decide to book a trip to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX, they should make sure the airfare and hotel reservations are refundable.

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