NFL: Rookie Quarterbacks Outshining Second-Year QBs

Finding the right quarterback is hard, and developing that quarterback can be harder. It’s why the history of the NFL is littered with No 1 overall picks with forgettable careers, and late-round draft picks with unforgettable careers. Tom Brady famously was taken in the sixth round. Roger Staubach was a 10th-round pick, and Bart Starr didn’t go until the 17th round. 

JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, and David Carr all went No. 1 overall.

As much as finding the right quarterback can make a franchise, wasting a top pick can kill one. So the examination of quarterbacks taken with a high draft pick never ends.

2023 Quarterback Draft Class

Three of the top four draft picks in 2023 were used on quarterbacks. Less than two years into those young careers, only one of those three quarterbacks remains his team’s starter. If we extend it to the fourth quarterback taken in 2023, Will Levis, who was selected 33rd overall by the Tennessee Titans, three of the four top quarterbacks selected have been benched.

Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young was the first overall pick last year, and after two starts in 2024, he was sent to the sideline. He played in Week 8 because of an injury to Andy Dalton, and he wasn’t terrible. But his earlier benching points to a future in someplace other than Carolina. The most recent trade rumor circulating has him going to the New York Giants.

C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud was the Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, and he began this year as one of the MVP favorites, paying +1000. But Stroud is now missing two of his three best wide receivers, and he has found the going much tougher in his sophomore season. His MVP odds have taken the hit because of it, dropping to +1800.

Last season, through eight games, Stroud had 2,270 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception. This year, through eight games, Stroud has 1,948 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Not bad, but not the step forward many people were expecting.

Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts

When the Indianapolis Colts selected Anthony Richardson with the fourth-overall pick in 2023, they knew he was raw. He started just a single season in college, and more than any other quarterback in the draft, he needed patience. Ten games into his career, the patience has run out. He started just four games as a rookie because of injuries, and he missed two games this season with injury. But in the six games he has played, Richardson has seven interceptions, and this last week, he committed the sin of all sins – he removed himself from the game because he was tired. He only missed one play, but that play is costing him a start in Week 9.

It’s worth noting that through 10 games, he has 1,913 total yards, 12 touchdowns via passing and rushing, and eight interceptions. Through the first 10 games of his career, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen had 2,282 total yards, 13 touchdowns passing and rushing, and 11 interceptions.

Thankfully, the Bills did not give up on Allen.

2024 Quarterback Draft Class

Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams was not very good in the Chicago Bears loss at the Washington Commanders. But he had been playing very good football leading up to that game, and the overall No. 1 pick is showing good development to go along with his natural physical gifts.

Williams has the Bears thinking about the playoffs for the first time in four years (+260 to make the playoffs), and he is +650 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders

The Offensive Rookie of the Year is Jayden Daniels’ trophy to win. He won the head-to-head against Williams last week. He was considerably better than Williams in the game, and on the season, he has more passing yards, rushing yards, and total touchdowns than Williams.

Daniels isn’t just the runaway favorite to win OROY, he is also +1600 to win the MVP award. That puts him ahead of Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love. Thanks to Daniels, the Commanders are now -350 to make the playoffs.

Drake Maye – New England Patriots

Drake Maye was the third-overall pick in the 2024 draft, and even though he’s started only three games, he has provided a spark to the New England Patriots offense.

Maye has five touchdowns to just two interceptions, and he’s completing 63.1% of his passes. Those are good signs for what lies ahead for Maye and the Patriots.

Bo Nix – Denver Broncos

The current AFC playoff picture has the Denver Broncos in the postseason, and with a higher seed than the Baltimore Ravens. The defense has been good for years. But now with Bo Nix at quarterback, the Broncos are actually able to generate some offense, too. Nix has thrown just one interception since Week 2, and he has 12 total touchdowns.

Nix was a distant thought to win Rookie of the Year when the season began. Now he is paying +1400, which ranks him third. The Broncos were +700 to make the postseason when the season began. Today, that number is +125.

In Denver, they are Bo-lievers.

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