We are officially halfway through the NFL regular season. Nine weeks are in the books, and there are nine weeks left to play. (Technically, we are just past the halfway point, with 138 total games played, and 134 still to come.)
It is not too soon to take a look at where things stand in the playoffs picture. Every NFL team is doing it, and figuring out what needs to happen for them to keep playing in January.
AFC Playoffs Picture
No. 1 – Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
The Kansas City Chiefs look beatable, yet no one has figured out how to actually beat them. They are the NFL’s only undefeated team, and they are the top seed in the AFC. According to the models, Kansas City has a 79% chance of finishing the regular season as the top seed, making the road to the Super Bowl go through Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs are the current betting favorite to win Super Bowl LIX, paying +400.
No. 2 – Buffalo Bills (7-2)
The Buffalo Bills host the Chiefs in Week 11, and they are almost to the point where seeding is the only thing to play for. The Bills have a four-game lead in the AFC East, which is effectively five games at the moment, because they own the tiebreaker over the New York Jets.
Buffalo is the current second-seed in the AFC, and they are +800 to win the Super Bowl.
No. 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
If Russell Wilson never had his years in Denver, the Pittsburgh Steelers might be the favorite to win the AFC. Instead, they are +1400, which ranks them fifth in the conference. The defense is great, the skill players are very good, and Wilson has been great since he returned to the lineup.
The two questions holding everyone back from going all-in on Pittsburgh are: Can Wilson keep it up? Can Pittsburgh survive the AFC North? All six of their division games will come in the last eight weeks of the season.
No. 4 – Houston Texans (6-3)
The Houston Texans have completed the sweep of the Indianapolis Colts, and no one else in the AFC South poses a threat. They are now -2000 to win the division, +1200 to win the AFC, and +2500 to win the Super Bowl.
If those last two milestones are to happen for the first time in Texans history, the offensive line has to be better.
No. 5 – Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Lamar Jackson is the MVP favorite at +280, and the Baltimore Ravens are still the favorite to win the AFC North at -185. In Week 11, they play the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and in Week 16, the two teams will meet in Baltimore. Those two games are likely to decide the division.
No. 6 – Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
The AFC East began the season as the division most likely to send three teams to the AFC playoffs. Instead, it’s the AFC West that currently has three teams in, and the Chargers are in second place.
No. 7 – Denver Broncos (5-4)
The belief in the Denver Broncos took a hit this week in their blowout loss to the Ravens. Upcoming, they have a game in Kansas City, which could restore all confidence, or erode it even further.
NFC Playoffs Picture
No. 1 – Detroit Lions (7-1)
The Detroit Lions are like the United State Postal Service – through rain, sleet, or snow, this team is “built to win.” Never question head coach Dan Campbell about the toughness of his indoor team, who are coming off a big win in the weather at Green Bay.
Jared Goff is fourth in MVP odds at +700. The Lions are second in Super Bowl odds at +450, and they have a 51% chance of remaining the NFC’s top seed in January.
No. 2 – Washington Commanders (7-2)
The Washington Commanders are 7-2 for the first time since 1996. They ended up missing the playoffs that year by losing six of their final eight games.
Don’t count on that collapse happening again. The current leader in the NFC East is -750 to make the playoffs and +115 to win the division, in large part because they have the heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels. The No. 2 overall pick is now -1400 to win the award.
No. 3 – Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
The Atlanta Falcons are the only team in the NFC South over .500, and they’ve already completed a season sweep of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which gives Atlanta a three-game lead in the division. They still have games against the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders on the schedule, but they also have remaining games against four of the current two-win teams.
Atlanta is -1800 to win the division and +1200 to make it to the Super Bowl.
No. 4 – Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
The Arizona Cardinals are currently the top team in the wild NFC West, but they still play the Seattle Seahawks twice and the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers to close out the season. So anything can happen.
Arizona is currently +170 to win the NFC West and +115 to make the playoffs.
No. 5 – Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
The odds say that the Minnesota Vikings will not catch the Lions atop the NFC North. Minnesota is paying +350 to be the division champs. But at 6-2 and playing great football, they are -475 to make the playoffs.
No. 6 – Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
The Philadelphia Eagles are the team that has the most volatility in the seedings. Currently a sixth seed, they are still the betting favorite to win the NFC East at -140, which would move them to the No. 2 seed.
The Eagles are paying +550 to win the NFC, which puts them second behind the Lions.
No. 7 – Green Bay Packers (6-3)
The 49ers, Rams, Buccaneers, Seahawks, and Chicago Bears all have four wins, and are two games behind the Packers for the final wild card spot. But oddsmakers like Green Bay to stay in the playoff picture, and have them at -240 to make it to the postseason.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
