Seven teams have clinched their place in the NFL Playoffs, and seven teams have been eliminated. That means that with three weeks left in the regular season, 25 teams still remain mathematically in the hunt to win the Super Bowl.
AFC Division Leaders
In the AFC, three divisions have been decided, with the Houston Texans clinching the AFC South this past weekend for the second straight season. Houston is the No. 4 seed at the moment, and playoffstatus.com has them at 78% likely to finish as the No. 4 seed.
The AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs stay on top of the conference, now 13-1. They took a break from winning games on the final play, and instead beat the Cleveland Browns by two touchdowns. The Buffalo Bills kept pace with a big win on the road against the Detroit Lions, but their odds of getting the No. 1 seed are fading. Kansas City has an 81% chance of getting homefield throughout the playoffs, while Buffalo slides to 19%.
However, the Bills are paying +190 to win the AFC, while the Chiefs are behind them at +275. So bookmakers and sports bettors aren’t too concerned about homefield advantage.
The AFC North got more interesting with the Pittsburgh Steelers loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Steelers can clinch the division with a win this Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens, but if Baltimore wins, the two teams will be tied with two weeks left. Pittsburgh, by nature of their one-game lead and win over the Ravens in Week 11, are -175 to win the North, while the Ravens are paying +140.
AFC Wild Cards
The Ravens have yet to clinch at least a wild card spot, but that’s merely a formality. The Denver Broncos win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday moved their playoff odds to 93%. One more win in their final three games and the turnaround in Denver will be complete.
That win could come as early as Thursday, when they play at the Los Angeles Chargers, currently in the final wild card slot. The Chargers were beaten badly by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they’ve now lost three of four games and in need of a win. Finishing as the No. 7 seed most likely means a trip to Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs.
The Chargers are three-point favorites on Thursday, and a win for L.A. would give them the season-sweep and the tiebreaker advantage.
AFC Bubble Teams
The Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals are all still mathematically alive, but none of them can exceed nine wins, making them longshots to get into the postseason.
A bet on the Colts to make the playoffs pays +750, and the Dolphins pay +1000. The Bengals still have a head-to-head with the Broncos, and Cincinnati is paying +700 if they make the playoffs.
NFC Division Leaders
Three playoff spots have been clinched in the NFC, but none of the divisions have been clinched. But any win by the Eagles, or a loss by the Washington Commanders, and Philadelphia will claim the NFC East for the second time in three years.
The Eagles are also very much still in the chase for the No. 1 seed thanks to the Lions loss on Sunday. Both teams are 12-2, and Detroit has to play the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 – a game likely to decide the winner of the NFC North. The Lions already beat the Vikings in Minnesota, so even if they were to lose in Week 16 or 17, a win over the Vikings at home will win the division.
The Atlanta Falcons saved their season with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night, but the Buccaneers are heavy -400 favorites to win the NFC South. The Seattle Seahawks loss at home to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night knocked them out of first place in the NFC West, and the Los Angeles Rams are now -160 favorites to win the division.
NFC Wild Cards
The Commanders and Packers have outside shots at winning their division, but most likely they will be two of the three wild card teams. The Packers are 99% assured of a playoff spot (according to playoffstatus.com) and the Commanders are 73% likely to make the playoffs. A bet on Washington to be in the postseason pays -550.
The other wild card team will be either the Lions or Vikings.
NFC Bubble Teams
The last wild card spot is still in play for three possible contenders if they don’t win their divisions. The Seahawks dropped behind the Rams in the NFC West, but they do still play the Rams again in Week 18. They can win the West by winning out, or they can catch the Commanders in the wild card with a loss.
The Falcons ended their four-game losing streak, and while they can still catch the Bucs in the division, their best path to the playoffs is as a wild card. They are +220 to make the postseason.
The Arizona Cardinals are also still in the NFC West race, as well as possibly being the final wild card. They are paying +500 to be in the postseason. A month ago, the Cardinals were a -150 bet to be in the playoffs.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
