NFL: Forecasting Offensive Rookie of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year

The NFL’s race for the MVP is a jumbled, beautiful mess. Josh Allen is now the odds-on favorite to win, paying +150. Lamar Jackson is behind him at +200, and Jared Goff’s perfect 158.3 quarterback rating on Sunday — along with 412 yards and four touchdowns — has him at +600. But those rankings may still flip several times before the end of the year.

We have runaway favorites for Defensive Player of the Year in T.J. Watt (-200) and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Jared Verse (-200). So there isn’t much more to say about those races.

But for Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) and Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY), we have clearly defined races that are likely to come down to the last week of the season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Favorites

Before the season began, it was Bears quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams who was the favorite to win OROY. He was a star at USC, a can’t-miss NFL prospect, and his wide receiving corps in Chicago was built for his success.

Three months later, he is a distant +4000 to win the award and is no longer in the race.

Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick and a Heisman Trophy-winner like Williams, jumped into the favorites role with his great start to the season, and remains on top today. But at one point, he was a -3000 guaranteed winner, and that number now stands at -400. Daniels hasn’t been as good as he was, but most of the change has been because of how great Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix looks.

Nix was +2800 just a couple of weeks ago, and he was given very little chance to win the award. Now he is +300 and playing the best football of any of the rookie quarterbacks. After a good game against the Kansas City Chiefs that nearly turned into an upset win on the road, he was spectacular against the first place Atlanta Falcons, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns in the 38-6 win.

When looking at a defense’s average passer rating allowed, Nix faces a really favorable schedule going forward. He plays the Las Vegas Raiders (ranked 25th), the Cleveland Browns (22nd), Indianapolis Colts (20th), Cincinnati Bengals (18th), and the Chiefs (15th). 

The schedule for Daniels also features several opportunities for him to shine. He plays the Dallas Cowboys twice (28th), the Tennessee Titans (19th), and the Falcons (27th). Daniels still has a couple of challenges, highlighted by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16.

Offensive Player of the Year Favorites

Three months ago, your betting favorites for Offensive Player of the Year were Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, and CeeDee Lamb.

None of those three have shorter odds than +10000 today, and this race has become a two-man race, with an asterisk. That asterisk is Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals, who has been outstanding the last two weeks, with five touchdowns and 339 yards receiving. He’s +600, but the Bengals are likely to miss the playoffs, which will hold him back.

That leaves it down to the two best running backs in the league, Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens and Saquon Barkley of the Eagles. Both were free agent signings in the off-season, and both are making NFL general managers rethink their recent devaluing of the position. Henry is being paid $8 million this season, which is less than 38 wide receivers.

Barkley is the current betting favorite at +105. He’s rushed for more than 100 yards six times, his yards from scrimmage has topped 100 yards eight times, and he has 10 touchdowns. Henry is right behind him at +140, with touchdowns in every game this season. He leads Barkley in rushing yards by 48, but he trails Barkley in yards from scrimmage by 66.

Henry’s upcoming schedule has some tough matchups. He plays the Los Angeles Chargers (11th in rushing yards allowed per game), the Steelers (5th), Texans (9th), and Eagles (7th). That head-to-head matchup with Barkley happens in Week 13 in Baltimore. 

The rest of Barkley’s upcoming schedule has the same tough game against the Steelers, but much easier matchups with the Cowboys (31st), Giants (29th), and the Commanders (30th). Barkley also has one extra game to play.