NFL: Can the Kansas City Chiefs Go Undefeated?

The Kansas City Chiefs are a bit of an odd duck. They are the two-time defending Super Bowl champion and the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFL, and they are led by arguably the best quarterback in league history not named Tom Brady. Yet this team is winning because of its defense, and of the 16 touchdowns scored in their six wins, only six have come by passing.

Last year, the two final unbeaten teams were the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, and the Eagles averaged 28.2 points per game, while the Niners averaged 33.4. In 2022, the Eagles were the last undefeated team, and through their opening winning streak they averaged 28.1 points.

When the Arizona Cardinals finally lost in 2021, they were averaging more than 32 points per game.

The theme here is that generally, in this most modern iteration of the NFL, you win with great offense. And when you have a three-time Super Bowl MVP at quarterback, you most certainly win with a great offense. But the Chiefs through six games are scoring 24 points per game, which ranks just 13th in the NFL. 

In red zone scoring, the Chiefs rank 25th, and they are 12th in passing yards per game. But they are tied for the third-most interceptions. They have the 10th-worst quarterback rating through six games.

How are they winning like this? Can they keep winning like this?

Beating the Spread

The Chiefs have never been great against the point spread in the Andy Reid era, topping out at 10-5-1 in 2019, the first year this group of Chiefs won the Super Bowl. In 2022, they were 14-3 in the regular season, but 7-10 against the spread. Last year, in another Super Bowl-winning season, the Chiefs were 9-7-1 against the spread.

You wouldn’t know it from watching the Chiefs, because each of their games feels like it comes down to one play in the closing minutes. But this year, they are currently 5-1 against the spread. They are on pace for their best against the spread (ATS) record since they went 11-3-2 in 1997.

The Chiefs are favored in this week’s game at the Las Vegas Raiders by 9.5 points, and they are 8.5-point favorites in Week 9’s Monday game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Upcoming Schedule

Right now, you will get +1100 on the Chiefs finishing the regular season at 17-0. Assuming they get it done as heavy favorites against the Raiders and Buccaneers, that puts them at 8-0 through nine regular season weeks. That +1100 is likely to shrink even more.

Next, they are home against the Denver Broncos, and they will be favored. In Week 11, they are at the Buffalo Bills, and will likely be the underdogs. But then it’s the Carolina Panthers, Raiders again, Los Angeles Chargers, and Cleveland Browns. Those games will go favorite, favorite, favorite, favorite.

At home against the Houston Texans in Week 16 will be tight. They are at the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day in Week 17, and then they will be at the Broncos to close the season in Week 18.

Going 17-0 is a longshot, which is why you’re getting +1100 odds. But 15-2 is quite doable, and right now, if you bet the over on 14.5 wins, you get +120. The Chiefs are currently paying -155 to finish the regular season with the best record in the NFL.

Coming Offensive Improvements

The Chiefs defense carries a swagger. They have a recent history of dominance, a defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo who is at the height of his career, and some very impressive stats. They allow the fifth-fewest points per game, have the third-best rushing defense, rank fourth in defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), and third in defensive success rate.

However, it’s hard to picture the Chiefs staying this competitive without improvements to the offense, which is why they made the trade this week for DeAndre Hopkins. Without the injuries to their own wide receivers, it’s doubtful that general manager Brett Veach makes the move for Hopkins. But they have had very bad injury luck this season, and Hopkins gives them an upgrade. You can already look ahead to Super Bowl LIX and place a bet on Hopkins to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. It pays +500.

Injured running back Isiah Pacheco may be back at some point, and there is word that Hollywood Brown could return from his AC joint surgery by the playoffs. And Patrick Mahomes can’t continue to have such bad interception luck. Four of his eight interceptions have come on either tipped balls, his young backup wide receivers running the wrong routes, or somehow falling down.

So expect the offense to be better as the season goes on. The defense will remain great, and no one plays as well with the game on the line in the fourth quarter than Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are undefeated for a reason, and they are the Super Bowl favorites (+400) for a reason.

The Bills and Baltimore Ravens do present challenges. But that was also the case last year, and the Chiefs beat both of them on the road. This season, those playoff games are trending to be at Arrowhead.

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