NFL: Biggest Surprises, Biggest Disappointments at the Halfway Point

The secret to NFL futures betting isn’t to bet on the best team– it’s to find the team that most overperforms expectations. The Kansas City Chiefs are exactly who we thought they would be, a great team and Super Bowl favorite. The same for the Detroit Lions, who are the class of the NFC through the first half of the season.

But there are plenty of teams, good and bad, that are very different today than we thought they would be two months ago.

Surprise: Washington Commanders (7-2, First Place in NFC East)

A new head coach, a rookie quarterback, and a recent history of futility had the Washington Commanders near the bottom of the betting pile back in August. They were +1000 to win the NFC East, which ranked them last in the division, even behind the New York Giants.

Instead, the Commanders are scoring the third-most points in the NFL with that rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, and they rank third in total yards. They have also been a bettor’s dream, going 7-2 against the spread.

Tough games remain, including the Pittsburgh Steelers this week and two games with the Philadelphia Eagles. But bookmakers are believers, now listing them at +115 to win the NFC East. Daniels is the huge betting favorite (-1400) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, and head coach Dan Quinn is the +180 favorite to win Coach of the Year.

Disappointment: New York Jets (3-6, Second Place in AFC East)

To be fair to the New York Jets, it’s not a surprise that they are in second place in the AFC East. It is a surprise, and a disappointment, that they are in second place with just three wins, and they have no shot at catching the Buffalo Bills.

The Jets also have almost no shot to make the playoffs, paying -400 to miss the postseason. When the season began, they were -175 to make the postseason, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers was the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year at +140. Rodgers is now +900 to win the award, behind Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, and J.K. Dobbins.

One thing the preseason odds did get right on the Jets was the fate of former head coach Robert Saleh. He was +700 to be the first head coach fired this season, and that was a winning ticket.

Surprise: Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, Second Place in AFC West)

The Los Angeles Chargers changed head coaches and lost all of their wide receivers last off-season. This was supposed to be a season of growing pains for the Chargers, as Jim Harbaugh worked to change the culture and the philosophy of the team.

That is still in process, and we won’t see the full transition until likely next season. But the wins are coming anyway, and at the moment, the Chargers are in second place in the division and in the playoffs, should the season end today.

It doesn’t end today, but the odds say L.A. will be in the playoffs when it does. They are -400 to make the postseason, and paying +300 to miss it. When the season began, the Chargers were +150 to make the playoffs and Harbaugh was +1000 to win Coach of the Year. Now he is +600.

Disappointment: New Orleans Saints (2-7, Last Place in NFC South)

After two weeks, the New Orleans Saints were the best team in the NFL, winning 47-10 over the Carolina Panthers, and at the Dallas Cowboys, 44-19. After those two games, the Saints were -200 to make the playoffs, and Dennis Allen was getting serious juice as Coach of the Year, with his odds shortening to +1130. Right before he was fired this week, those odds grew to +32500.

New Orleans has lost seven straight, and they are now led by interim head coach Darren Rizzi, who has been a special teams coordinator for the entirety of his NFL career. They are selling off their parts, and because General Manager Mickey Loomis has been kicking the financial can down the road for years, New Orleans is going to be bad for some time. The Saints are $77 million over the salary cap for 2025 (worst in the NFL) and they have a dead cap hit next season of $48 million (worst in the NFL).

Quarterback Derek Carr has cap hits of $51.4 million in 2025 and $61.4 million in 2026, so they are in the market for a new QB.

Surprise: Rookie Quarterback Class

Finding multiple franchise quarterbacks in the same draft class almost never happens. In 2020, it happened, with Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts all going in that draft.

But in 2021, Trevor Lawrence is the only quarterback of the top five taken still with his original team. The top five from 2022 have all moved on to new teams just three seasons after their careers began. Last year, we had the wonderful season from C.J. Stroud. But Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis are all struggling to stay on top of their depth charts.

This season, we have another incredible rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels, and we have seen flashes of really good play from Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. As the top-three picks in the draft, all three of them look to be good picks. As the 12th player taken, Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos looks like an outstanding pick. He is perhaps the biggest surprise of the class.

And we still have Michael Penix and J.J. McCarthy to look forward to in the future.