NFL: Best Teams Against the Spread in 2024

The Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers both lost on Sunday, keeping them each with a single win and making them the two favorites to get next year’s overall No. 1 draft pick.

If the Panthers get the pick, it will be their third-straight year of finishing the season with the worst record. That would be an NFL first.

As it turns out, both the Titans and Panthers have just one win against the spread (ATS), so they are not good, and they are not good to bet. But on the other end of the spectrum, there are a number of teams who are proving to be quite profitable.

Indianapolis Colts (7-1 ATS)

The Indianapolis Colts experience has been a roller coaster this season. Anthony Richardson is the future, then he leaves hurt and we take another time machine ride with 39-year-old Joe Flacco. Then Richardson comes back, and he actually admitted on Sunday that he checked himself out of the game because he was tired.

They beat the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers, but lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and now they have lost twice to the Houston Texans. They are a little bit of everything, and they leave you wanting a little bit of something more each time they play.

But when it comes to winning against the spread, no one this season is better. In Week 2 at the Green Bay Packers, they failed to cover as two-point favorites. But that is the only blemish. They have won six straight ATS, and they are a perfect 5-0 this season as the underdog. 

This coming Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings, they are five-point underdogs.

Washington Commanders (6-1-1 ATS)

The Washington Commanders have only two losses straight up on the season, and they haven’t lost against the spread since Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (They pushed in Week 6 at the Baltimore Ravens).

If you love heart-wrenching covers, then you loved the Commanders on Sunday. They were covering in a win over the Chicago Bears, then it looked like the bet was lost when the Bears scored a touchdown in the closing seconds. But an incredible Hail Mary from Jayden Daniels to Noah Brown snatched an amazing victory from the jaws of defeat.

In all of 2023, the Commanders covered the spread just six times. Through eight games in 2024, they have already matched it.

Detroit Lions (6-1-0 ATS)

Since Dan Campbell revived the Detroit Lions, they have been one of the best teams in the NFL to bet. Campbell took over in 2021, and Detroit was 11-6 against the spread. The previous two years under Matt Patricia they were under .500.

In 2022 the Lions finished 12-5 against the spread. In 2023, they were also 12-5, and now, this year, they are 6-1 through seven games. They also have some of the most comfortable covers of 2024, including this Sunday’s 38-point win over the Tennessee Titans. 

In Week 9, the Lions are four-point favorites at the Green Bay Packers, who are 4-4 ATS.

Denver Broncos (6-2 ATS)

After three straight years of finishing the season below .500 against the spread, the Denver Broncos have become one of the best bets of 2024. The Broncos went into Sunday as 13.5-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers, and they won by 14.

Denver has had much easier covers this season, including a 20-point cover against the New Orleans Saints, a 13-point cover against the Las Vegas Raiders, and a 25-point cover against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Denver’s only losses against the spread have been as underdogs, and their next three games are all against division leaders, making them underdogs in each.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 ATS)

The Kansas City Chiefs keep winning. They are 7-0 in 2024, and when you add that to last season’s Super Bowl run, they have won a total of 13 straight games. They’ve also covered the spread in five of their seven wins this season, and each of those six wins to close out last year. You may remember the Chiefs were underdogs at the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, again at the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, and also in the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers.

The Chiefs moneyline has been the best in football, dating back to last December, and the Chiefs to cover the spread is the second-best bet.

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