Next Gen Stats is all over the NFL these days, providing in-game win probabilities as each new play unfolds, and each team either rises or falls in the likelihood that they will finish with the victory. Next Gen Stats has also done the calculations and simulations to determine which teams are most likely to get into the playoffs. Turns out the NFL playoff picture, as it currently stands, has a very good chance to be what we see in January.
AFC Playoff Picture and Probabilities
The Kansas City Chiefs have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 61% chance to be the No. 1 seed. The Buffalo Bills are also in the 99th percentile to make the playoffs, and have a 24% chance to be the top seed.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in first place in the AFC North, and have a 98% chance to be in the playoffs, but just a 10% chance to get the top seed and first-round bye. The South-leading Houston Texans are at 97% to be in the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens are at 96%, the Los Angeles Chargers are at 91%, and the Denver Broncos are at 69%, and that goes up to 77% with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend.
AFC Bubble Teams
That doesn’t leave a lot of room for anyone else to make a serious charge at the postseason. In fact, only the Indianapolis Colts have a better than 10% chance to make it in. They currently sit at 28%, and that goes up to 44% if they beat the Detroit Lions, which isn’t likely. With a loss to Detroit (the Lions are 7.5-point favorites), the Colts chances of making the playoffs drops to 21%.
At the moment, the Colts are paying +180 to make the playoffs and -220 to miss them. The Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals are both currently at 9% to make the postseason. But with only six losses and a game this week against the New England Patriots, Miami has shorter odds. They are paying +300 to make the playoffs, while the 4-7 Bengals are at +350.
NFC Playoff Picture and Probabilities
The NFC is a little less certain, because there are fewer teams mired at the bottom. The AFC has six teams with three wins or fewer, while the NFC has just three – the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants.
On top is the Lions, with a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 65% chance of being the top seed. They are also the current favorites to win the Super Bowl, paying +320.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the leaders in the NFC East at 8-2, and they are 97% likely to make the playoffs, but only have a 15% chance to finish as the top seed. The Minnesota Vikings are also 8-2 and a game behind the Lions, and they are 95% likely to make the playoffs and have a 14% chance of passing Detroit and getting the top seed.
The next-highest team is the Washington Commanders, sitting at 82% to make the playoffs and a 23% chance to still win the NFC East. The Green Bay Packers are at 81% to make the playoffs, but only 5% to win the NFC North. And the other two division leaders, the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals, are where there is the most uncertainty and where there is the most room for someone to move up.
The Falcons lead the South and have a 76% chance to make the playoffs. The Cardinals are in first-place in the West, but only have a 57% chance of making the playoffs, according to Next Gen Stats.
NFC Bubble Teams
In the AFC, the best bets of bubble teams come from potential wild card teams. In the NFC, it’s potential division champions in the South and West.
The entire NFC West is still in this race, with the San Francisco 49ers at 31%, the Seattle Seahawks at 25%, and the Los Angeles Rams at 15%. Prior to losing this past week to the Seahawks, the 49ers were at 59% to make the playoffs. The 49ers are currently paying +200 to make the playoffs, which was unthinkable when the season began. Back in August, the Niners were +250 to go back to the Super Bowl and +600 to win it.
Of the teams trailing the Cardinals in the West, Seattle is the only one in control of its own destiny. They still play Arizona head-to-head twice, plus they end the season at the Rams. Seattle is paying +300 to make the playoffs and +600 to win the division.
The Falcons are in first in the NFC South, but they were just dismantled by the Broncos, 38-6, and there are some real questions for them going forward. Plus, they have tough games remaining at the Vikings, at the Commanders, and home to the Chargers.
The door is still open for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have a 27% chance of winning the division and a 34% chance of making the playoffs. Based on winning percentage, the Bucs also have the second-easiest schedule remaining in the NFL. They have two games against the Carolina Panthers, are at the Giants and Cowboys, and home against the Raiders and New Orleans Saints.
A bet on Tampa Bay to win the NFC South is currently paying +275. They are +175 to make the postseason.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
