
The last time the Denver Broncos made the playoffs, they won the Super Bowl. That was nine years ago, five head coaches ago, 13 starting quarterbacks ago, and two owners ago.
Bookmakers are still unsure about the viability of a Broncos playoff run in 2024, putting the odds at +180 for the Broncos to make the postseason. If you bet on the Broncos to miss the playoffs, the odds are -225.
But take a closer look at this team and the task before them with 10 regular season games remaining, and a bet on Denver might present really good value.
Bo Nix and the Denver Offense
The Broncos defense is very good. On Thursday night in their 33-10 win against the New Orleans Saints, they generated 14 quick pressures – pressures that take less than 2.5 seconds. That added to their league-leading total of 66 quick pressures for the season.
Denver is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game, seventh in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and third in defensive success rate. The defense is one of the best in the NFL, and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is going to be a candidate this off-season for another head coaching opportunity. He was the Broncos head coach in 2017 and 2018, when he was stuck with Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch at quarterback.
Bo Nix is already worlds ahead of those quarterbacks, and if he continues to show the improvement that we’ve seen over the first seven weeks, that will make the difference.
The offense isn’t great. They rank just 26th in EPA and 27th in total offense per game. But over the last three weeks, that improves to 18th in EPA, 18th in total offense, and 10th in offensive success rate.
Nix threw four interceptions in the first two weeks of the season, but just one since then, and all five of his touchdown passes have happened over the last four weeks. And if you remove the terrible weather game he had against the New York Jets, Nix is averaging 240 yards of total offense per game. Chicago Bears No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams is averaging 247 yards of total offense per game, and Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels (-195) of Washington is averaging 287 yards per game.
The potential for Nix is obvious. He’s taking better care of the ball as a passer as the season goes on, and he’s fourth in quarterback rushing yards, ahead of players like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.
Upcoming Wins
The Broncos are 4-3 after their Week 7 win in New Orleans, and next week, they will play another NFC South team, the Carolina Panthers. The Broncos are favored by 4.5 points over the Panthers, which would make them 5-3 and halfway to 10 wins, with nine games still remaining.
Week 9 is at the Baltimore Ravens and Week 10 is at the Kansas City Chiefs. But in the other three games before Denver has its bye in Week 14, they are home against the Atlanta Falcons, at the Las Vegas Raiders, and home vs. the Cleveland Browns.
Even assuming they lose to the Ravens, Chiefs, and Falcons, wins over the Raiders and Browns – two teams who have given up on the season – would put the Broncos at 7-6 with four games remaining.
Off the bye, they host the Indianapolis Colts, then travel to the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals, and host the Chiefs on the final week of the season.
A 9-8 record is well within their reach, and possibly even 10-7. Denver beat Kansas City at home last season, and with the game taking place in Week 18, there is the possibility that a Chiefs team already locked into a playoff spot rests Patrick Mahomes.
Wild Card Competition
The Chiefs, Ravens, Houston Texans, and Buffalo Bills are all legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and all are teams that are clearly better than the Broncos. But the middle class of the AFC is not very good this season, and that opens up a wild card door for Denver.
The Steelers always win nine or 10 games because of head coach Mike Tomlin, and the Bengals will be in the mix because Joe Burrow is playing lights-out. But everyone else in the AFC has major issues. The Broncos will get another head-to-head crack at the Chargers. They own the tiebreaker over the Jets, should New York right its ship. Without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, the Miami Dolphins are adrift. The Broncos will get an opportunity to control their fate against the Colts. No one else in the conference is a threat.
There are three wild card spots, and there is no reason that the Broncos can’t grab one of them. And if that happens, you might also cash in on a Sean Payton for Coach of the Year wager that currently pays +800.

With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.