NCAA Football Week 8 Betting Preview

Eight of college football’s top 10 teams are in action this weekend, and 20 of the top 25 are playing. That includes Army and Navy, who are simultaneously ranked in the top 25 for the first time since 1960. Both are unbeaten this late in the season for the first time since 1945.

The biggest games, as is often the case, are in the SEC, including a tilt in Austin, Texas, that puts the No. 1 ranking on the line.

No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas (-5)

You’ll forgive the Georgia Bulldogs for being a little sore about being an underdog. They have grown accustomed to being the top-ranked team in the country and the perennial favorite. Not this year, with that honor belonging to the unbeaten Texas Longhorns.

Quinn Ewers returned last week for Texas, and struggled with his accuracy in the early going. In years past, that would be the deathknell against a defense like Georgia’s. But not this year. Georgia is second to last in the SEC in forcing turnovers, which is a big reason why they aren’t quite the team we’re used to seeing.

On the season, the Bulldogs are a very bad 1-5 against the spread. Texas has covered the spread in five of their six wins.

No. 2 Oregon (-28.5) at Purdue

A Friday game in West Lafayette has the No. 2 Oregon Ducks at the Purdue Boilermakers. Oregon is coming off last week’s big win at home over Ohio State, while Purdue played its best game of the year last week in their loss by one point to Illinois.

Neither team has been good against the spread, with both at 2-4. But that is where their similarities end. Purdue is 1-5 and having their worst season since they were 1-11 in 2013. Oregon is undefeated and very much enjoying its first season in the Big Ten.

No. 6 Miami (-5) at Louisville

Miami survived a scare two weeks ago against Cal, winning by just a point. The week before that, they only beat Virginia Tech by four as 17.5-point favorites. The week off will hopefully do them some good, and get the Hurricanes back to looking like the team that won its first four games by an average of 42 points.

Louisville shook off two straight losses with a rebound win over Virginia. But we don’t really know who this team is. They played well in their loss to Notre Dame, but looked quite poor against SMU. At home this week, they have another chance to define their season.

No. 7 Alabama (-3) at No. 11 Tennessee

Alabama is used to dominating Tennessee. The Crimson Tide has beaten the Vols in 16 of the last 17 meetings, with the only loss in that stretch coming in 2022, when Tennessee won in a memorable game, 52-49.

We’re expecting another great game between these two SEC rivals, but with a little extra at stake. They are both 5-1 and 2-1 in SEC play, and whoever loses this game will have to get a big win down the stretch if they have any hope of making the College Football Playoff. Alabama still has to go to LSU, and Tennessee still has a date with Georgia.

Getting into the CFP with two losses could happen for either team. But three losses, which becomes a real possibility for the loser of this game, would almost certainly end their season.

No. 8 LSU (-2.5) at Arkansas

It’s not often that a team in the top 10 is less than a field goal favorite against an unranked opponent. But LSU isn’t your typical top 10 team, and Arkansas isn’t your typical unranked opponent.

LSU has rebounded from their Week 1 loss to USC, and they did get a big win over Mississippi last week at home. But they always play a close game when battling for the Golden Boot with Arkansas. Each of the last four years were decided by a field goal, with LSU winning the last two meetings, 34-31 and 13-10. In 2021, Arkansas was the winner, 16-13.

Arkansas is coming off a huge win over Tennessee two weeks ago, and they are now 5-1 against the spread.

UCF at No. 9 Iowa St. (-13.5)

Iowa State is the best team in the Big 12, and with an undefeated 6-0 record, they are zeroing in on the first College Football Playoff appearance in school history. The Cyclones still have games with Utah and Kansas State in late November, but right now, they are rolling. Along with their 6-0 record, they are 5-1 against the spread.

On the other sideline, UCF has lost three straight games, and in each of those three losses they were the pregame favorite.

Virginia at No. 10 Clemson (-21)

It was against Georgia, so we can forgive it. But Clemson’s Week 1 loss by 34-3 is still a head-scratcher. Even more so when you consider how good they have looked since. Only Florida State has stayed within 24 points of Clemson, and even FSU lost by 16. Clemson has also covered the spread in four of their last five games.

Clemson is a 21-point favorite over Virginia, one week after covering a 21-point spread against Wake Forest. Clemson won that game by 35. 

Virginia played well last week at home against Louisville, covering the spread for the third straight week. Overall, Virginia is 4-2 against the spread.

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