When the Kansas City Chiefs take the field Monday night, it will be the 315th day since they last lost. For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it will have been 22 days since they last won.
The Chiefs keep winning, and there is no team in the NFL that is better at finding new ways to beat their opponent. The Bucs began the season with two wins over two current first place teams, the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions. But the identity of that early-season team is gone, and Tampa Bay seems adrift.
Game Line: Chiefs (-9)
Nothing would get Tampa Bay’s season back on track more than a win over another first-place team, and on the road on national television. The last time Baker Mayfield visited Arrowhead Stadium, it was four teams ago, when he was still with the Cleveland Browns. He threw for 321 yards in the 33-29 loss. The meeting before that was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, which was also a Kansas City win.
The Chiefs are 7-0 on the season and 5-2 against the spread, and even as we weekly wonder what is wrong with an offense led by Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs rank 11th in points pergame, 11th in total yards per game, and second in third down conversion rate. It’s not elite, but it’s inaccurate to say the offense is being carried by the defense. The Chiefs are a top 10 rushing team and they have Mahomes. That is a recipe for success.
Quarterback Proposition Bets
Mayfield averages 273 passing yards per game and is second in the NFL. Mahomes averages just 237 yards per game and ranks 14th. But it is Mahomes that has the higher over/under on Monday night. The passing yards line for Mahomes is 249.5, while the line on Mayfield is 236.5.
That is a commentary on these two defenses. You have to go back to Joe Burrow in Week 2 to find a quarterback that threw for more than 230 yards against the Chiefs. The Bucs gave up 276 yards to Kirk Cousins last week, then 281 to Lamar Jackson the week before, and 243 yards to rookie Spencer Rattler before that. They were also the victims of the biggest passing game of the season when Cousins threw for 509 yards in Week 5.
The over/under on touchdown passes is 1.5 for both. But Mahomes is -125 on the over and Mayfield pays +135 if he goes over.
Running Back Proposition Bets
The Chiefs defense is even better against the run, giving up more than 50 yards to only one running back this season, and holding Derrick Henry to 46 yards, Bijan Robinson to 31, and Alvin Kamara to just 26. Running backs have found the end zone against the Chiefs just two times all season.
Tampa Bay running backs will find the going tough. Bucky Irving has an over/under of 32.5 rushing yards, and Rachaad White is at 27.5. As touchdown scorers, Irving is +215 and White is +240.
For the Chiefs, Kareem Hunt has an over/under of 63.5 yards, and he is -200 to score a touchdown. He is the +390 favorite to score the first touchdown of the game.
Pass Catcher Proposition Bets
When this game was first scheduled, the top four wide receivers we were expecting to see were Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for the Bucs, and Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown for the Chiefs. All four of them are out injured, and Godwin and Rice won’t play again until next season.
For Tampa Bay, the highest over/under belongs to tight end Cade Otton at 53.5 receiving yards. Jalen McMillan is the top wide receiver at 38.5. White out of the backfield has a line of 24.5 receiving yards.
For the Chiefs, the pre-game leader is tight end Travis Kelce at 61.5 receiving yards. Last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, he had 90 yards and his first touchdown of the season. Tight end Noah Gray has catches in five straight games, and his over/under is 22.5.
DeAndre Hopkins caught two passes last week for 29 yards in his Kansas City debut, and bookmakers have him at 44.5 receiving yards on Monday night. Rookie Xavier Worthy had 37 yards last week, and his receiving yards line for Monday is 36.5.
Kelce is paying even money (+100) to score a touchdown. Worthy is +180, and Hopkins is paying +175. For the Bucs, Otton is +220 to find the end zone, and McMillan is paying +260.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
