Monday Night Football Betting Preview – Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Josh Allen is coming off one of the worst games of his career (9-of-30 for 131 yards) and the Buffalo Bills are coming off two straight losses. Their game against the New York Jets on Monday night should be a get-right game, except for the interim head coach boost factor that will be powering the Jets.

A team that makes a head coaching change mid-season is not the sitting duck that many people think. Since 2010, there have been 27 in-season firings, and 27 interim head coaches. That includes Jeff Ulbrich, who took over the Jets last week when Robert Saleh was fired.

For the 26 interim head coaches that came before Ulbrich, those coaches are 15-11 in their first game, even though they were underdogs in 19 of those 26 games.

So maybe this is a get-right game for the Bills. But maybe New York can rally for their new coach and move into first place with a win.

Game Line: Bills (-1)

Through three weeks, there was no doubting the Bills or quarterback Josh Allen. They looked like the class of the AFC, and he looked like he was on his way to an easy MVP.

But the NFL is largely a week-to-week league, and in the two weeks that followed that hot start, Buffalo came back to earth. Now they have to play the Jets at MetLife Stadium, where they have lost two straight games. A year ago at MetLife, the Jets beat the Bills, 22-16, and Allen threw three interceptions. In 2022, the Jets won at MetLife, 20-17, and Allen threw two interceptions.

Job one for the Bills’ two-time Pro Bowl quarterback: protect the football.

Quarterback Proposition Bets

Oddsmakers are expecting a mild passing night from Allen, with the over/under on his passing yards set at 201.5. He is, of course, dangerous anytime he has the football, and his rushing yards line heading into the game is 33.5.

That total for Allen – 234.5 yards – would be his third-highest yardage total of the season. In Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals, he finished with 271 combined yards, and in Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he had 307 combined yards.

The line of Allen’s passing touchdowns is 1.5, and he is paying +155 to score an anytime touchdown.

Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions in the Jets’ loss in London last week, but the line on his interceptions for Monday is 0.5. His passing yards line is 216.5, and his passing touchdowns over/under is also 1.5.

Rodgers was never known for his running, and even less so now that he is 40. A Rodgers anytime touchdown pays +1000.

Running Back Proposition Bets

The Bills have made a concerted effort to run the football and take some of the pressure off Allen, and that has led to a breakout season for James Cook. His over/under on rush yards on Monday is 55.5, which is well below the 82 yards he rushed for last week. He’s paying +120 to score a touchdown, and +600 if it’s the first touchdown of the game.

Cook is nursing a toe injury, and that might limit his total touches in the game.

On the Jets side of things, they have to figure out a way to get Breece Hall going. His over/under for the game is 58.5, which is above his total rush yards for four of his five games this season. Last week against the Vikings, he managed just 23 yards on nine carries.

Braelon Allen has been getting work for the Jets, and the rookie fourth-round draft pick has an over/under of 33.5 rush yards. He ran for 33 in Week 2, 55 in Week 3, and 34 yards in Week 4.

Hall is -110 to score a touchdown in the game, and Allen is +330.

Pass Catcher Proposition Bets

Garrett Wilson is by far the best wide receiver in this game, and the over/under on his receiving yards is 60.5. Wilson went for more than 100 yards last week in London, and scored his second touchdown of the season. He’s +150 to score again Monday night.

The other favorite target for Rodgers is Allen Lazard, who is +240 to score a touchdown against the Bills. The line of his receiving yards is 35.5. Tight end Tyler Conklin has an over/under of 28.5 receiving yards, and Mike Williams is at 26.5.

For the Bills, the top target is right end Dalton Kincaid. He leads Buffalo with a receiving yards line of 38.5. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is just behind him at 34.5. Kincaid and Coleman are both +300 to score a touchdown.

Bonus Coaching Prop Bet

Ulbrich has been named the head coach of the Jets for the remainder of 2024. But will he be the next full-time head coach of the Jets? According to the oddsmakers, probably not.

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is the current favorite, paying +300. Mike Vrabel is a consultant for the Cleveland Browns this year, and he went to the playoffs three times in six seasons as the head coach of the Tennessee Titans. He’s paying +400 to be the Jets’ next head coach.

Ulbrich is in the mix, paying +500. Bobby Slowak, the offensive coordinator of the Houston Texans, is also paying +500. Pretty far down the list, but always a possibility, is Bill Belichick at +1600. In 1997, he was the Jets head coach for six days, but never coached a game. In 2000, he was the Jets head coach for one day, and also didn’t coach a game.