MLB: Japanese Import Roki Sasaki Has His Pick of Teams

In 2022, Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki threw a 19-strikeout perfect game for Chiba Lotte. In that dominating performance, he threw 13 consecutive strikeouts.

In his next outing, he threw 14 strikeouts in eight perfect innings before getting pulled in the ninth. 

Chiba Lotte is not in the lower levels of Japanese baseball. Sasaki was pitching in the Pacific League of the NPL, and at the time that he was perfect on the mound, he was just 20-years-old.

Now Sasaki is 23. He is a two-time All-Star, was a gold medal winner at the World Baseball Classic in 2023, and he is coming to Major League Baseball. But unlike the bidding war a year ago that made Yoshinobu Yamamoto the highest-paid pitcher in baseball, Sasaki is cost-controlled. When a Japanese player leaves for MLB before he is 25-years-old, he is considered an international amateur free agent, and is only allowed to sign a minor-league contract.

Much like when Shohei Ohtani came to the United States when he was 23, the Los Angeles Angels were able to sign him for $2.3 million and control his rights for six years. The final three of those six years were arbitration years, where he contract grew to $5.5 million. Which is just a fraction of what he makes now, or what Yamamoto signed for as a 25-year-old.

All 30 Major League Baseball teams can afford Sasaki, but he has criteria for his next home. He is going to look for stability, lifestyle, and a team’s history of developing players. The Los Angeles Dodgers, with both Ohtani and Yamamoto, are natural fits. But at the WBC last year, Sasaki became friends with Yu Darvish of the San Diego Padres, and that could play a role.

The Dodgers are the betting favorites to land Sasaki, paying +350. The Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks are both +500.  The New York Mets are the most likely east coast team, paying +600. 

Free Agent Next Team Odds

Sasaki is ranked as the third-best free agent on the market. He is the youngest, and he is easily the cheapest. But there are plenty of other directions that teams can go to increase their fortunes for 2025.

The best of the bunch is Juan Soto, and he is also going to be the most expensive free agent, possibly in history. While all 30 teams are theoretically in the hunt for Sasaki, a very limited few can sign Soto. The New York Yankees are the favorite at -130, followed by the Mets at +160, and the rest of the field at +900.

Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher available, and the Baltimore Orioles would very much like to keep their four-time All-Star. Baltimore is +600 to sign Burnes, the Mets are first at +450, followed by the Boston Red Sox at +500 and the Chicago Cubs at +550. Burnes has been in arbitration the last three years, and this is his first chance to negotiate a contract as an unrestricted free agent.

If it’s a lefty that you prefer, Blake Snell is the way to go. He opted out of his contract with the San Francisco Giants, even though this season was a struggle between injuries and ballooning ERA. He was much better at the end of the season, and Snell is banking on this off-season being the one where he gets a long-term contract. 

The Padres and Mets are +550 to sign Snell, with the Red Sox behind them at +600.

If it’s a power-hitter that you want, and you weren’t able to sign Soto, Alex Bregman is a good choice. The third baseman is a two-time World Series winner with the Houston Astros, and they are the favorites to re-sign him at +380. The Detroit Tigers also make interesting suitors at +650.