Ali-Holmes. Leonard-Hearns. Holyfield-Tyson.
The city known for hosting the biggest battles in sports history is set for another epic showdown: Chestnut-Kobayashi, in “Unfinished Beef.”
The long-awaited hot dog eating skirmish between Takeru Kobayashi, the undisputed king of the links between 2001 and 2006, and Joey Chestnut, the grand duke of dogs from 2007 to 2023, will be live on Netflix this Labor Day. The annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest was missing its biggest star this summer because of a sponsorship conflict. But the unofficial final weekend of the summer will bring us all the gluttonous glory.
Chestnut the Heavy Favorite
As legendary as Kobayashi is, and as much credit as he deserves for putting competitive eating on the map, this is Chestnut’s contest to win. He holds the world record with 76 hot dogs and buns (HDB) eaten in 10 minutes. He also has winning totals of 66, 68, 69, 70, 72, 74, and 75. In competition, Kobayashi has never gone over 64.5.
Chestnut is the betting favorite, paying -1000. Kobayashi is paying +550 to score the unlikely upset. Not only does Chestnut have the better history, he has the most recent history. Kobayashi is coming out of retirement for Monday’s competition.
Total Dogs Eaten
Another popular bet for the hot dog eating extravaganza are the over/under on dogs consumed for each of the two competitors. For the favored Chestnut, his line is 62.5 finished frankfurters. Kobayashi’s line is 49.5.
When Chestnut won the Nathan’s contest in 2023, he finished with 62 HDB. In 2022, he finished with 63. In 2021, he broke the world record with 76, one year after eating 75.
When Kobayashi was in the midst of his dominant run at Coney Island, he went over 49.5 HDB in four of his six wins. In his other two Mustard Belts won, Kobayashi finished with 44.5 and 49. The last time he participated was in 2009, and in a losing effort to Chestnut, he consumed his personal high of 64.5.
It’s worth noting that outside of their showdowns in 2006 (won by Kobayashi) and 2007, 2008, and 2009 (all won by Chestnut), neither of them are used to being pushed in this contest. Chestnut’s last Mustard Belt was won by a margin of 16 HDB. Perhaps with the threat felt by the one-on-one competition against their rival, both former champions will feel extra motivation to eat.
Color Coordinated Eaters
The other bet that you can place on Unfinished Beef is the predominant color of each competitor’s top. We’re used to seeing Chestnut in the white shirt provided by Nathan’s, and white is the favorite here at -150.
If Chestnut is wearing black, the bet pays +240. Any color other than white or black pays +280.
For Kobayashi, black is the favorite at -150. White is +240, and a different color pays +280. When Kobayshi set the world record for tacos eaten in Las Vegas in 2016, he was wearing white. When he set the world record with 337 chicken wings eaten, he was also wearing white. When Kobayashi beat Chestnut head-to-head in the Krystal Square Off World Hamburger Eating Championship, setting the world record with 93 hamburgers eaten, he was wearing red.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
