Jayden Daniels is Great for the Washington Commanders and NFL Bettors

What C.J. Stroud did last season as a rookie quarterback was considered by many as a once-in-a-generation kind of season. Pundits predicted it would be ages before we’d see another young signal-caller take the league by storm and turn a doormat into a contender.

It took exactly one year for that to happen again.

It’s early, and Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders is sure to hit some bumps in the upcoming weeks. But the first four weeks of his career have been the most accurate four weeks of any career. Daniels has completed 82.1% (87-106) of his passes in leading the Commanders to a 3-1 record, and that is better than past greats Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.

And to clarify, it’s not just better than any four-game stretch for those quarterbacks when they were rookies. It is better than any four-game stretch at any point in their Hall of Fame careers.

Daniels leads the NFL in completion percentage by a wide margin. He’s first in completion percentage over expected, and his expected points added per play is five times more than Stroud, last year’s Rookie of the Year. Daniels’ success rate is also the highest in the NFL, and is nearly 15 percentage points higher than Stroud.

To no one’s surprise, Daniels is now the heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at -140. When he was drafted by the Commanders with the No. 2 overall pick back in the spring, he was paying +775. Daniels is also making noise on the MVP betting markets, and he’s now +2500 to win that award. That puts him ahead of fellow quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, and Jalen Hurts, and it’s a significant change from the +15750 he was paying right after the draft.

Daniels vs. Cleveland Browns

Daniels has his Commanders playing first-place football in the NFC East, and he leads one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. The team did finally punt in Week 4 after going two straight weeks without one. And over the last three weeks, the Commanders have had 22 possessions that didn’t end with a kneel-down, and Washington has scored on 20 of them.

The Commanders are three-point favorites at home over the Browns this Sunday, and Daniels has an over/under of 224.5 passing yards. In Week 1, he went under his line of 210.5. But in each of the last three weeks (all Commanders wins), he has gone over. For rushing yards this week, the line on Daniels is 48.5. In Week 1, he was over that number by nearly 40 yards. But last week, he fell short of the over by one yard.

He’s -135 to score a touchdown in Week 5, and he pays +475 to be the first touchdown-scorer of the game. If Daniels throws for two or more touchdown passes, that bet pays +115.

Possible Season Leader

Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has chosen to place an emphasis on shorter and more successful plays, as opposed to riskier and deeper throws. It has paid off in spades, but it’s also likely to keep Daniels from becoming a season leader. He is paying +2500 to lead the NFL in passing yards, which puts him behind 13 other quarterbacks.

Daniels is a great runner of the football, and the Commanders are one of the best rushing teams through four weeks, ranking third in the NFL with 169.3 rush yards per game. That’s also likely to keep his passing touchdown totals low, and he is paying +10000 to lead the NFL in TDs through the air.

When the season began, the over/under on rushing yards for Daniels was 525.5, and right now he is projected to go well over that total. Daniels is on pace for 926 yards, which would be the seventh-most rushing yards for a quarterback in any NFL season. The single season record belongs to Lamar Jackson and his 1,206 yards in 2019.

Commanders in the Playoffs

When training camps opened in July, the Commanders were +310 to make the playoffs and +1050 to win the NFC East. Today, Washington is at +115 to make the playoffs and +240 to win the division. 

The last time Washington made the playoffs and won the division was in the COVID year of 2020. The Commanders finished 7-9 that season and became just the third team in NFL history to win their division with a losing record.

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