The NFL had its first snow game of the season on Thursday night, and it was a doozy. Along with every inner 13-year-old wanting to call their friends and play football in the snow, the game in Cleveland reminded us why division rivalries are different.
The Cleveland Browns are the same team that has suffered losses to the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and New Orleans Saints – four teams with a combined 11 wins. They’ve also beaten the Baltimore Ravens and now Pittsburgh Steelers – two teams with a combined 15 wins.
The rest of the week’s schedule is filled with what appear to be lopsided division matchups. But as the Steelers just learned, favorites beware.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-8)
The Houston Texans are the best team in the AFC South, and with tiebreakers in their favor, they have what amounts to a three-game lead in the division. On the other sideline stands the Tennessee Titans, a two-win team that is in the middle of the sweepstakes for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
The Texans get the Titans this week and the Jacksonville Jaguars next week, then they have their bye. And if they take care of business, and the Steelers stumble again, suddenly Houston might find itself as the three-seed in the playoffs.
Just keep winning inside the division.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10.5)
The last time the Washington Commanders were favored by double-digits against the Dallas Cowboys was 2000. That Sunday 24 years ago, the Cowboys won outright, 27-21, with Randall Cunningham outdueling Brad Johnson.
That was at the tail end of the best years of this storied rivalry, which saw the Cowboys and then-Washington Redskins win 14 of 20 NFC East division titles. These days, it’s usually one team up and one team down, and right now, it is the Commanders that have something to play for. The Cowboys are just playing out the string.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Even when the New England Patriots were in the midst of their dynasty, the Miami Dolphins were a thorn in their side. Ten times during the Tom Brady years, the Dolphins beat the Patriots straight up when they were underdogs, and four of those lopsided point spreads were 10 points or more
Miami is now the better team, although this year has been a struggle. Still, they have a chance to play themselves back into the playoff picture, while New England is the more-than-a-touchdown underdog hoping to play spoiler. Miami won the earlier meeting this season with an ugly 15-10 win. But that was Jacoby Brissett losing to Tyler Huntley. Drake Maye vs. Tua Tagovailoa makes for a much better matchup.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams felt that there were far more positives to build from after last Sunday’s loss to the Green Bay Packers, and he is right. Prior to a second quarter touchdown run by Roschon Johnson on Sunday, the Bears had gone nine full quarters without finding the end zone.
They still lost for the fourth straight time, further burying them in the NFC North. And now all Chicago can do for the rest of the season is try to spoil the postseason plans of their division rivals. They play the Minnesota Vikings twice in the next four weeks, and they still play two with the Detroit Lions and one more with the Packers.
The Bears won’t win the division race, but they will have a big say as to which team does.
Denver Broncos (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders
While Caleb Williams is holding on to moral victories in a disappointing season in Chicago, Bo Nix is making Bo-liever converts. The Denver Broncos rookie quarterback is making a serious run at Offensive Rookie of the Year, now paying +300 just a couple of weeks after his odds were +2500.
Nix has been especially good against his AFC West rivals. In Denver’s first win over the Las Vegas Raiders, he threw two touchdowns and ran for a third. His first time out against the Los Angeles Chargers, he threw two touchdowns and ran for 61 yards. In his first game against the Kansas City Chiefs, he nearly beat Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium, outplaying the three-time Super Bowl MVP.
This week at Las Vegas, Nix and the Broncos are favorites for the fifth time this season. They are a perfect 4-0 against the spread as the favorites, winning by an average of 21 points in those games.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1)
It was an incredible comeback win last week for the Seattle Seahawks, keeping their hopes alive to win the NFC West. The probabilities that they win the division aren’t great at just 18%. But with a win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, that probability goes up to 29%.
The Cardinals are still the favorites to win the division, but they are underdogs in this game in Seattle, and they will have to play the Seahawks again in Arizona on December 8. Seattle also has a game left with the Los Angeles Rams, meaning that if they just take care of business inside the division, their fate is in their hands.
They will have to string together some wins to make that happen, and they haven’t won as many as two straight since September. On the other hand, the Cardinals come into this game having won four straight games.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
