College Football Top Matchups – Week 1

We got just a taste of the college football season last week, when Georgia Tech upset Florida State in Ireland. FSU went into the game ranked No. 10 in the nation, while Tech was unranked, and yet the Ramblin’ Wreck came away with a 24-21 win.

The next AP poll is released after Labor Day, and after that, we have our first full weekend of college football action.

Thursday, August 29

Headlining the four college football games that kick off on Thursday are two two teams with realistic College Football Playoff aspirations.

The Missouri Tigers (No. 11) are at home against Murray State, and after last year’s 11-win season and victory over Ohio State at the Cotton Bowl, expectations are high. Mizzou is a huge 48-point favorite, and they were 9-4 against the spread in 2023.

No. 12 Utah was derailed by injuries in last season’s pursuit of a third straight Pac-12 title. But they are healthy to begin 2024, and they are in a new conference. Favored to win the Big 12, the Utes have their sights set on the College Football Playoff, and they begin the season at home against Southern Utah. 

Utah is favored by 38.5 points. But last season, they were just 6-7 against the spread.

In other Thursday action, Western Carolina is at No. 24 North Carolina State (-33.5), and Lindenwood is at No. 22 Kansas (-44.5).

Saturday, August 31

After one game on Friday – Temple at No. 16 Oklahoma (-42.5) – there is a full slate of college football on Saturday.

The best of the bunch is No. 14 Clemson at No. 1 Georgia. The Bulldogs are still the best team in the country, and they have the shortest odds to win another national championship at +300.

Clemson is +4000 to win at the end of January, and they are 13.5-point underdogs for their season opener at Georgia. In 2023, the Bulldogs lost only one game, but against the spread, they were just 5-9.

The other game on Saturday that features two top-25 teams is No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M. Despite the difference in rankings, the Aggies are actually three-point favorites. It’s worth noting that last year, A&M only covered the spread five times, and just once in their final eight games.

Notre Dame covered the spread nine times in 2023, and they finished the season with wins of 38, 33, and 32 points. Riley Leonard is the new quarterback (+3000 to win the Heisman Trophy), and with the new 12-team playoff, he is expected to lead Notre Dame back to the CFP for the first time since 2020.

Other top-10 teams playing on Saturday include No. 2 Ohio State (-50), No. 3 Oregon (-43.5), No. 4 Texas (-32), no. 5 Alabama (-33), No. 6 Ole Miss (-42), No. 8 Penn State (-51.5), and No. 9 Michigan (-21).

No. 23 USC vs. No. 13 LSU (-4.5) – Sunday, September 1

With the NFL still a weekend away from regular season play, the two schools that have churned out the last two Heisman Trophy winners will play on Sunday. USC, now without quarterback Caleb Williams, will play in Las Vegas against LSU, now without quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Miller Moss is the new quarterback for the Trojans (+4000 to win the Heisman Trophy), and for the Tigers, the new man under center is Garrett Nussmeier (+2200 to win the Heisman Trophy).

Moss started in the postseason for USC at the end of last season, and set a Holiday Bowl record with six touchdown passes. Nussmeier led LSU to a New Year’s bowl victory over Wisconsin at the end of last season, throwing for 395 yards and three touchdowns.

Boston College at No. 10 Florida State – Monday, September 2

The first week of college football concludes with how the season began last weekend, with the Florida State Seminoles. Already 0-1, they are facing a must-win on Labor Day. FSU expects to be in the mix with Clemson for the ACC title, but a loss to Boston College might be enough to end that dream.

The ‘Noles are favored by 15.5 points. But they were 10.5-point favorites last week, and they lost outright. Last season, BC was 5-8 against the spread. FSU was 8-6 ATS in 2023.