Last Saturday, the third-ranked team in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, Georgia, was an 18-point loser on the road. Also, No. 4 Miami, one of the country’s few remaining undefeated teams, fell to four-loss Georgia Tech.
BYU was also in danger of dropping from the ranks of the undefeated, but escaped their rivalry game with Utah, 22-21. If you were to ask Utah athletic director Mark Harlan, the game was stolen from the Utes. That post-game comment cost him a $40,000 fine by the Big 12, and still leaves BYU undefeated and in an excellent position for a CFP berth.
No. 1 Oregon (10-0)
The only thing that stands between Oregon and an undefeated season and top seed in the CFP is Wisconsin, Washington, and the Big Ten Championship Game. From start to finish, the Ducks have looked and played like the best team in the country.
Oregon is +340 to win the national championship.
No. 2 Ohio State (8-1)
Only one Big Ten team can finish in the top four and get a first-round bye. As it stands right now for Ohio State, they would be seeded fifth when the tournament actually starts. That’s unless they can get revenge over Oregon in a Big Ten Championship Game, but that only happens if they can beat Indiana in two weeks.
Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship at +320.
No. 3 Texas (8-1)
Texas is still lacking a signature win this season. The loss on their resume is to Georgia, and their best wins are over unranked Vanderbilt and unranked Michigan. If they fail to get to and win the SEC Championship Game, there is a chance they will fall out of the top-12.
Texas is +110 to win the SEC.
No. 4 Penn State (8-1)
The logjam in the Big Ten pushes Penn State down to a sixth seed in the CFP, even as the fourth-ranked team. Their best win on the season is over Illinois, and their one loss came to Ohio State. They also have three very winnable games to end the season – Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin – and they get to avoid a game against unbeaten Indiana.
No. 5 Indiana (10-0)
The last of the four Big Ten teams that populate the top five is the Indiana Hoosiers, who have yet to lose this season. For the first time in school history, they have 10 wins, and if they can win at Ohio State on November 23, they will play for the Big Ten title and a place in the CFP top four.
Indiana is +1000 to win the Big Ten.
No. 6 BYU (9-0)
If BYU can close out its second Big 12 season with a conference championship, they will be guaranteed a spot in the top four. Up next is Kansas, and then the Cougars play Arizona State and Houston. For the game at home against the Jayhawks, BYU is a three-point favorite.
BYU is a +7500 longshot to win the national championship.
No. 7 Tennessee (8-1)
Tennessee is the second of the five SEC teams currently in the top 12, but only three of them would make the actual top 12 if the current conference leaders win their championships. The Vols win over Alabama should get them ahead of the Crimson Tide, and they need a win this Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia is favored by 10.5 points.
No. 8 Notre Dame (8-1)
Notre Dame doesn’t have the challenge of a conference championship game to come, and they are favored to win each of their three remaining games – Virginia, Army, and USC. All signs point to Notre Dame being in the CFP, and perhaps hosting a first-round game.
No. 9 Miami (9-1)
Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech has not cost them too much. They remain the only ACC team in the top 12, and they are five spots ahead of No. 14 SMU, whose only loss was to unbeaten BYU. If SMU and Miami keep winning, they will play for the ACC Championship.
Miami is -150 to make the College Football Playoff, and SMU is +120.
No. 10 Alabama (7-2)
Alabama is expected to make the CFP and go on the road in the first round, and no one wants to be the team that has to play them. Alabama’s losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt will keep them at the bottom of the top 12, but their wins over Georgia, LSU, and the shutout of Missouri makes them a top candidate for a CFP run.
No. 11 Mississippi (8-2)
Ole Miss is another of the SEC teams in the crowded field, and it’s possible that they will get left out, even with their win over Georgia. They are off this week, but then they play at Florida and at home against Mississippi State, and they need to look really good in those final two games.
No. 12 Georgia (7-2)
Georgia is not the Georgia we expected, so it’s not surprising that they took a significant drop from No. 3 last week. But their only two losses this season have come against teams currently in the top 12, and they do have that 15-point win at Texas. Should they be higher than 12th? If they want to make the CFP, they will need to be, because the team right behind them will automatically jump ahead of them.
Even with their spot in the top 12 uncertain, Georgia is +800 to win the national championship, which ranks fourth.
No. 13 Boise State (8-1)
Boise State is ranked 13th, but because they are the highest-ranked Group of Five team, they would jump ahead of Georgia in the standings and grab the last spot in the CFP. Boise State’s only loss was by three points at No. 1 Oregon, which really helps the resume. And if they win their final three games of the season – San Jose State, Wyoming, and Oregon State – they will be in the playoff.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
