College Football Playoff: Point Spreads for Potential Championship Game Matchups

The semifinals of the College Football Playoff kick off on Thursday with Penn State and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl.  A day later, at the Cotton Bowl, Texas and Ohio State play in the other semifinal game.

The CFP National Championship will be played on Monday, January 20, and we’ll know the participants by Friday night. However, if you want to get a jump on the competition and place your bets on potential matchups for the championship, the betting is open.

Ohio State the Favorite

Ohio State is -130 to win the national championship, and if they do happen to make it past their semifinal game against Texas (OSU is -6), they will be favored to beat either of their two potential opponents.

If it’s Ohio State vs. Notre Dame, the Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 points. If the opponent is fellow Big Ten team Penn State, OSU will be 9.5-point favorites.

These point spreads do bring into question the CFP committee’s seeding choices. None of the three teams were automatic bids with first-round byes, which would dictate a top-four seed. But of the three, Ohio State had the worst seed. They are eighth, and the worst of the seeds that hosted a first-round game. Notre Dame is the seventh seed, and Penn State was sixth.

Ohio State and Penn State played each other in November, and Ohio State won 20-13, adding further fuel to the controversial seeding fire.

Notre Dame Second Betting Favorite

Notre Dame is paying +425 to win the national championship, which puts them well behind Ohio State, but just ahead of Texas, who is paying +475.

Those betting odds seem to favor Notre Dame, but the point spreads do not. If Notre Dame gets past Penn State in the semifinals, along with being an underdog against Ohio State, they are also an underdog in a hypothetical matchup with Texas. The Longhorns are favored by 2.5 points in that potential national championship game.

The reason for the discrepancy is the semifinal at the Cotton Bowl. Texas is paying longer odds to win the championship because they play Ohio State on Friday. However, if Texas gets past that game, they will become the favorites to finish on top.

Along with being favored in a potential matchup with Notre Dame, if Texas plays Penn State in the CFP National Championship, they are favored by three points.

Penn State the Longshots

Penn State’s only two losses this season were to Ohio State by a touchdown in November and an eight-point loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. And in their two games in the College Football Playoff. they have wins of 28 points and 17 points.

It’s a great resume, and one that looks every bit as good as Texas and Notre Dame. But they are paying +600 to win the championship, which is the longest odds of the group, and they are underdogs in the Orange Bowl and both possible championship game matchups.

Of note, Penn State lost both of its games as an underdog this season, and they haven’t won as an underdog since 2021.