The biggest and most important game of the college football season is here, and we lucky college football fans and bettors still have two more to go after it.
It’s Notre Dame vs. Penn State in the first CFP Semifinal, and one of these two teams will be playing for a national championship in Atlanta on January 20.
Game Line: Notre Dame (-1.5)
Ranked No. 7 when the season began, Notre Dame plummeted to 18th after losing to Northern Illinois in Week 2. It remains the most inexplicable loss of the season for a top team, and thankfully it didn’t tank the season for the Fighting Irish. It could have, and when the committee was deciding the at-large teams for the College Football Playoff, there were a number of voices against Notre Dame. It was a bad loss.
Beginning in Week 3, Notre Dame began repairing the damage done. They won 10 straight to end the season, climbed up to the No. 3 ranking, and have beaten Indiana and Georgia in the CFP to get to this game. Notre Dame has also been the best friend to bettors this season, going 11-2-1 against the spread.
Penn State is just an average team against the spread, going 8-7 for the season and just 2-3 against ranked opponents. They failed to cover in their two losses this season – at Ohio State and against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game – and early in the season, they rarely covered at all.
Penn State was 2-4 ATS after squeaking out a win over USC in October, but has been decidedly better since then. And in the CFP, they have been perfect, covering a nine-point spread against SMU with a 28-point win, and as an 11.5-point favorite against Boise State, they won by 17.
The over/under for the total score in this game is 45.5.
Notre Dame Scoring Props
On its first offensive drive of the game, Notre Dame is paying +140 to get a score and -195 if they fail to score. You can get +475 on an opening drive field goal attempt and +220 if they score a touchdown. Notre Dame is -120 to score the first points of the game.
At 24.5 points, you begin to get plus points for Notre Dame overs. It’s +120 if they score at least 25 points, and that escalates to +175 if they score 28 points or more.
The total touchdowns line for Notre Dame is set at 2.5, and you get +155 on the Irish to score first and go on to win the game. If Notre Dame wins by shutting out Penn State, the payout is +2200.
Penn State Scoring Props
On the first offensive possession for the Nittany Lions, they are +155 to score points and -220 to fail to score. They are +425 to attempt a field goal on the opening drive, and +230 to score a touchdown. Penn State is -110 to score in the game before Notre Dame does.
Penn State’s game points moves into plus money at 24.5. At that total for the game, you get +130 for the over. If the Nittany Lions score as many as 28 points, the payout escalates to +190.
Penn State’s total touchdowns line is 2.5, and the bet on Penn State to score first and go on to win the game pays +180. And just like with Notre Dame, Penn State to win by shutout pays +2200.
Winning Team Margins
Notre Dame
To win by 1-6 points (+380)
To win by 7-12 points (+500)
To win by 13-18 points (+800)
To win by 19-24 points (+1200)
Penn State
To win by 1-6 points (+400)
To win by 7-12 points (+550)
To win by 13-18 points (+800)
To win by 19-24 points (+1300)
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
