College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview

The college football bowl season is upon us. James Madison kicked things off with a win over Western Kentucky on Wednesday at the Boca Raton Bowl, UNLV beat Cal at the L.A. Bowl, and on Thursday night, Sam Houston and Georgia Southern play at the New Orleans Bowl.

Early college bowling is usually the home of the teams that play in smaller conferences, or just snuck into the party with a late win to make them bowl eligible. Like the Florida Gators (7-5), who play Tulane at the Gasparilla Bowl early on Friday.

But after that game concludes, the bowl weekend is taken over by the College Football Playoff First Round. The teams just happy to be in a bowl clear the decks, and we begin the journey to the National Championship Game on January 20.

Indiana at Notre Dame (-7)

At one point, Indiana was considered a good candidate to either have a first round bye or be a first round host. Instead, they are going on the road, even though their only blemish is a loss to Ohio State, 38-15. They play at Notre Dame, who lost to Northern Illinois, and didn’t have to slog through a conference schedule.

Did the committee get the seeding right? Oddsmakers think so, making Notre Dame a touchdown favorite in South Bend on Friday night. And if Indiana was to go on the road, this is the shortest road they could have taken. The trip from Bloomington to South Bend is just three hours up US-31.

These two Indiana schools have never been rivals, but maybe Friday’s CFP First Round game will change that. The winner moves on to play Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

SMU at Penn State (-9)

SMU was on the bubble after their last-second loss in the ACC Championship Game. But Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney lobbied for their inclusion in his breathless post-game interview, and the committee agreed.

The Mustangs are nine-point underdogs on the road at Penn State on Saturday, but that’s fine with them. Twice in 2024, they were underdogs – home against TCU and at Louisville – and both times, SMU won the game outright. Overall, they are 8-4 against the spread this season.

Penn State has the best losers resume in college football. Their only losses are by one score to Ohio State, and one score to Oregon. Otherwise, the Nittany Lions were perfect on the season, which earned them a higher seed and easier path than Ohio State.

The winner in this game will play Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Clemson at Texas (-12)

The second Saturday game features the ACC champion Clemson Tigers at the Texas Longhorns, who at No. 5 are the highest-seed team playing in the first round.

Clemson lost three games this season, and are only in the bracket because of the last-second field goal that won them the ACC title for a ninth time under Swinney. They’re also the most experienced team in the CFP, as they make their seventh appearance in the playoff since it came to be in 2014.

Texas is making its second trip to the College Football Playoff, and first as a member of the SEC. The Longhorns were here last year as the Big 12 champions, and lost to Washington in the semifinals.

Texas has beaten everyone on their schedule not named Georgia. But the second loss to the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship is why they are playing in this first round, and not at home enjoying a bye week.

The winner of this game will play Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.

Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5)

The final game of the first round is Saturday’s clash between Tennessee and Ohio State.

It’s usually tough to be a visitor at Columbus Stadium. But Ohio State has already begged its fans to stop selling their tickets to Tennessee fans, and Stubhub reported that more of its tickets are being sold to Vols fans than to Buckeye fans. SeatGeek says that 42% of all resold game tickets are being sold to residents of Tennessee, and only 23% to Ohioans.

It would be an upset if Tennessee wins in Columbus, but there should be plenty of orange in attendance, making it slightly easier. But the two-loss Volunteers do still have to contend with an Ohio State that lost its two games by a combined four points, including a one-point loss at No. 1 Oregon.

Because of Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, we didn’t get an Ohio State-Oregon rematch in the Big Ten Championship. But if they can get past Tennessee, they will face Oregon in the Rose Bowl.