In Week 1, we were treated to a Thursday night game decided by a toe. This week, we get two more AFC playoff contenders — and two teams that have hated each other for years — in the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.
Game Line: Dolphins (-2.5)
The Bills have owned the AFC East the last four years, and thus have owned the Dolphins. But for the first time since the final game of the 2020 season, it is Miami that is coming into the game as the betting favorite.
The Bills have won the last four, covering the spread in the last two, and Buffalo is 11-2 in their last 13 games against the Dolphins. Miami’s previous win in the series came at home last season in September, when they generally play their best football. And the win before that, in 2018, also came in Miami.
The Bills had to come from behind to get the win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, and they pushed against the spread. Last season, Buffalo was 7-10 against the spread. Miami beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by a field goal in Week 1, failing to cover the 3.5-point spread. Last season, the Dolphins were 10-7 against the spread.
Quarterback Proposition Bets
Last week, quarterback Josh Allen accounted for 74% of the Bills total yards against the Cardinals. Allen threw for 232 yards, ran for another 39, and had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns.
Oddsmakers expect more of the same this week from Allen, setting the over/under on his passing yards at 244.5, and his rushing yards line at 37.5. He’s also a favorite to find the end zone again, paying -120. Two or more touchdowns pays +500 for Allen. He’s paying even more to throw for at least two touchdowns.
In 12 career regular season games against the Dolphins, Allen has thrown 33 touchdown passes. He did injure his left hand in Week 1, but he’s been a full participant this week in practice.
Tua Tagovailoa threw for 338 yards in Miami’s Week 1 win, and his over/under on passing yards against the Bills is 265.5. He only threw one touchdown pass against the Jags, but he is a -130 favorite to throw at least two against the Bills.
In seven career games against the Bills, Tua has thrown just six touchdown passes to seven interceptions.
Running Back Proposition Bets
Because of how much running Allen does from the quarterback position, Bills running back James Cook is never going to be a consistent high-volume performer. His over/under on rush yards for Thursday is 61.5, one week after he rushed for 71 yards.
Cook also caught three passes for 32 yards in Week 1, and the over/under on his total yards against the Dolphins is 85.5. If he can make it to 100 or more, that bet pays +165.
For Miami, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are banged up, and no Miami running back is on the betting board. Backup running back Jaylen Wright says he expects Achane (ankle) and Mostert (chest) to play, but he says he will be ready if needed.
Pass Catcher Proposition Bets
In Week 1, Tyreek Hill had quite the day. It began with him face down and in handcuffs on the street in front of Hard Rock Stadium, and ended with him catching an 80-yard touchdown on his way to 130 yards receiving.
Hill is the betting favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year (+550), and this week against Buffalo, his over/under on receiving yards is 97.5. He’s -120 to score a touchdown, +550 to score multiple touchdowns, and +650 to score the game’s first touchdown.
Jaylen Waddle also went over 100 yards in Week 1, and his Week 2 over/under is 63.5 receiving yards. He is +150 to score a touchdown.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid was a no-show for the Bills in Week 1, catching just one of two targets for 11 yards. Oddsmakers expect a bounce back in Week 2, with his over/under at 42.5 receiving yards. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman has a line of 43.5 yards a week after he caught four passes for 51 yards. Khalil Shakir caught three passes for 42 yards against the Cardinals, and this week against the Dolphins, his over/under is 39.5 yards.
As anytime touchdown scorers, Kincaid is +210, Coleman is at +235, and Shakir pays +275.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
