Betting Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani’s Historic Baseball Seasons

Never in the history of baseball has a player finished a season with 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases. Six times in history, a player has gone 40/40. But none of the five who did it before Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani added his name to the list came close to 50/50.

Two seasons ago, Aaron Judge set the American League record with 62 home runs in a season. His current pace has him hitting another 62, which would make him the third player in MLB history to record multiple 60 home run seasons. The New York Yankee would be the first to do it in the American League, and the first two do it outside the controversial era of steroid use in the 1990s.

Both would be historic events if they happen, and both can be wagered.

Shohei Ohtani and 50-50

Ohtani has nearly wrapped up the National League MVP award by becoming the fastest player in history to hit 40 home runs and steal 40 bases. He did it in 126 games, which is 21 games faster than anyone else. He’s -1400 to win the MVP, and the only reason he isn’t even more of a favorite is because some voters say they won’t vote for a DH. The two-way star has been sidelined as a pitcher all season, making him one-dimensional in 2024.

But what a dimension it is, and he should win the award based on his bat alone. And if he does make it to 50/50 by the end of the season, he should be a unanimous selection.

The betting odds are against him. A bet on him to achieve history pays +270, while you get -350 on him falling short.

Through Monday, August 26, he has 41 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He has just over a month of baseball to play, and in June he hit 12 home runs. Already in August, he has nine home runs. Nine more home runs and he’s at 50.

In July, he stole 12 bases, and in August, he has another 12 steals. Ten more between now and the end of September and he’s there.

It’s also worth noting that the Dodgers still play six games against the Colorado Rockies and three games against the Miami Marlins, the only team in the N.L. with a worse record than the Rockies. Ohtani also has four games against the Atlanta Braves. In three games against the Braves earlier in the season, Ohtani hit three home runs and had two stolen bases.

Aaron Judge, 62 Again

Unlike Ohtani, who is an underdog in his pursuit of history, Judge is a slight favorite to get back to 62 home runs. The current over/under on his final home run total is 62.5, and he is -105 to hit the over.

A couple of weeks ago, Judge was also a threat to hit for the Triple Crown, leading the American League in home runs, RBI, and batting average. He’s now 14 batting average points behind Bobby Witt of the Kansas City Royals, so the Triple Crown is unlikely. A no bet on Judge pays -900, while him winning all three pays +550.

The Triple Crown aside, no one is going to catch Judge for the American League MVP award. He’s at -3000, and Witt, his nearest competitor, is +1100. Witt is having one of the best seasons we have ever seen by a shortstop, but Judge is so good — and he is so good in the spotlight of New York City — that he is running away with the award.

Eleven more home runs gets Judge back to 62, and 12 homers will break his own American League record. In May, he hit 14 home runs, in June he hit 11, and so far this August, he has 12.

In 2022, when Judge first hit 62 home runs, he had months of 12, 11, 13, and he hit 10 home runs in September.

The Boston Red Sox have given up the fifth-most home runs this season, and Judge has four games left with them. The Texas Rangers are sixth in home runs allowed, and that’s who Judge plays at the beginning of next week. Largely because of Judge, Yankee Stadium has seen the most home runs in 2024. That is where New York will play its final six games of the regular season.