As has been the tradition since 2004 (with two exceptions), the NFL Kickoff Game features the defending Super Bowl champion against one of the marquee teams on their schedule. Last year, it was the Kansas City Chiefs hoisting their championship banner, then facing the Detroit Lions. This year, it’s the Chiefs raising their fourth banner all-time, then playing the Baltimore Ravens.
As opening night matchups go, this is as good as it gets. There are a pair of two-time MVPs at quarterback, four Super Bowl rings and 456 wins between the two head coaches (Ravens head coach John Harbaugh was an assistant under Andy Reid in Philadelphia), and the two teams are the betting favorites to win the AFC this year. The Chiefs are +300 to return to a third-straight Super Bowl, while the Ravens are paying +550 to play in their third Super Bowl overall.
Game Line: Chiefs (-3)
The Chiefs are at home and favored by a field goal. But it is important to note that last year, the Chiefs were favored by four points against the Lions in the season opener, and Detroit won the game outright, 21-20.
The Chiefs are in the midst of a dynasty, appearing in four of the last five Super Bowls. But over those five seasons, Kansas City is just 41-40-2 against the spread in the regular season. Straight up, that record improves to 63-20.
Over those same five years, the Ravens are 43-39-1 against the spread, including 11-6 last season, and 56-27 straight up. In Week 1 last year, the Ravens covered against the Houston Texans, and they covered the spread in Week 1 in 2022 against the New York Jets.
Total points for Thursday night’s games is 46.5, and both teams hit the under more frequently in 2023. The Chiefs hit the under in 12 of their 17 games.
Quarterback Proposition Bets
The defending MVP, Lamar Jackson, is a lighter and slimmer version of himself in 2024. He hopes it will make him faster than the last two seasons, when he was lacking some of the explosiveness from earlier in his career. With that in mind, the over/under on rushing yards for Jackson on Thursday is 49.5.
With Derrick Henry now in Baltimore, we should see fewer designed runs for Jackson. But he is still deadly when he finds space outside of the pocket.
The over/under on passing yards for Jackson is 218.5. For Patrick Mahomes, the preseason MVP favorite at +475, the over/under on passing yards is 264.5. Mahomes isn’t nearly as dangerous running the ball as Jackson, but he’s not bad either. His over/under on rush yards is 20.5. Mahomes ran for 66 yards in Super Bowl LVIII, and 44 yards the year before in Super Bowl LVII.
Running Back Proposition Bets
The Ravens have always liked to run the football, and King Henry gives them one of the best backs to ever do it. The over/under on rushing yards in Henry’s Baltimore debut is 63.5. In four career games against the Chiefs, Henry has 447 yards and six touchdowns.
The Chiefs are led on the ground by Rutgers man Isiah Pacheco, who has an over/under of 60.5 rushing yards. In last year’s AFC Championship Game at Baltimore, Pacheco ran for 68 yards on 24 carries. He also caught four passes for 14 yards, which is just shy of Thursday’s receiving yards line of 15.5.
Henry is +600 to score the game’s first touchdown, and he is -120 to be an anytime touchdown scorer. Pacheco is +600 to score the first TD, and -105 to get an anytime touchdown.
Pass Catcher Proposition Bets
Two of the very best tight ends in the NFL will be on the field on Thursday in Travis Kelce of the Chiefs and Mark Andrews with the Ravens.
Kelce’s over/under on receptions is 5.5, and on receiving yards it’s 56.5. He’s also a +105 anytime touchdown scorer. In the 13 games last year with his girlfriend Taylor Swift in attendance, Kelce averaged 6.8 catches for 79.9 yards. He also caught five touchdowns. She hasn’t confirmed that she will be in Kansas City on Thursday, but her tour is currently on a break.
We don’t have the numbers for Mark Andrews when his girlfriend, social media influencer Elena Yates, is in attendance. However, in four games against the Chiefs, he has 11 catches for 94 yards and no touchdowns. On Thursday, his over/unders are 4.5 receptions and 47.5 yards.
The top wide receiver for the Ravens, Zay Flowers, has a receiving yards over/under of 52.5. The Chiefs top wide receiver is Rashee Rice, and his over/under is 58.5. KC Rookie Xavier Worthy is at 46.5 yards.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
