ALCS Betting Preview – Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

When you are a team like the New York Yankees, the only thing that matters is October. No one even remembers that in April, Aaron Judge couldn’t hit water falling out of a boat. On May 2, he was hitting .197 with an OPS of .725. To put a .725 OPS in perspective, it’s what Colorado Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers had in 501 at bats this season.

To put just how great Judge was after he took an o-fer on May 2 in perspective, he finished the year with an OPS of 1.159. The only Yankees to finish a season with a higher OPS are Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle.

Judge was the best hitter on the planet from May 3 onward, and the Yankees were the best team in the American League. And now, after one season of missing the playoffs, they are back in the ALCS.

The Cleveland Guardians also missed the playoffs last year, and in the season before that, when they played in the ALDS, they lost to these Yankees in five games. Revenge is on their mind, but also trying to get back to the World Series for the first time since 2016. That’s when Cleveland lost to the Chicago Cubs in seven games after blowing a 3-1 lead.

The Guardians were +2600 to win the American League pennant when the season began at the end of March. But they come into this series with the best bullpen in baseball, and that has been enough to keep them winning in October.

ALCS Schedule

Game 1: Guardians at Yankees, Monday, Oct. 14, 7:37 p.m. ET

Game 2: Guardians at Yankees, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 7:37 p.m. ET

Game 3: Yankees at Guardians, Thursday, Oct. 17, TBD

Game 4: Yankees at Guardians, Friday, Oct. 18, TBD

Game 5: Yankees at Guardians, Saturday, Oct. 19, TBD (if necessary)

Game 6: Guardians at Yankees, Monday, Oct. 21, TBD (if necessary)

Game 7: Guardians at Yankees, Tuesday, Oct. 22 TBD (if necessary)

Yankees Favored to Win Pennant

They are the best team in the American League, they have the advantage of Yankee Stadium, and New York is the favorite to win this series. A bet on New York to win the ALCS pays -190. If you want to take the Guardians, you’ll get +160.

A Yankees sweep pays +800. New York in five games pays +450, you get +340 on the Yankees in six, and the odds are +410 on a Yankees ALCS win in seven games.

The unlikeliest of scenarios is a Guardians sweep, which is why that bet pays +2000. Cleveland in five games pays +900, a six-game Cleveland win pays +750, and the Guardians in seven pays +600.

In Monday’s Game 1, the Yankees are -162 on the moneyline. New York is +132 on the -1.5 run line. The Guardians are +136 on the moneyline and -160 on the +1.5 run line.

Player Props

Aaron Judge led all of baseball with 58 home runs in the regular season, and he is the presumed American League MVP. Teammate Juan Soto was fourth in all of MLB with 44 home runs, while the Guardians were paced by Jose Ramirez, who hit 39 home runs this season, tying him for fifth.

Yankee Stadium saw a total of 230 home runs this season, while Progressive Field in Cleveland had 189 home runs. So we expect to see plenty of long balls in this series.

Judge is the no-brainer favorite to hit the most home runs in the ALCS. He is paying +155. Giancarlo Stanton, who had a big home run for the Yankees in the ALDS, is at +330. Soto hasn’t hit a playoff home run since he was a San Diego Padre in 2022, but he is the third betting favorite at +550.

Ramirez is the only Guardians player under +2200. Ramirez, who hit a home run in Game 4 against the Detroit Tigers and has three career postseason home runs, is paying +600. One of his three postseason home runs came in the World Series in 2016.

The over/under on total runs scored in the series is 44.5.