On Thursday night at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium, we will have our first NFL game of importance in 208 days. The 2024 NFL season kicks off with the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the team they beat in the AFC Championship Game 222 days earlier, the Baltimore Ravens.
In the first of 272 regular season games, the Chiefs are favored by three points. The two quarterbacks in the game, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, have won four MVP awards between them, and Mahomes enters the new season as the +475 favorite to win his third.
New Head Coaches
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid are the second- and third-longest currently tenured head coaches in the league. But a full quarter of the men now in charge are new to their positions.
Jim Harbaugh was the biggest off-season hire, with the recently crowned national champion leaving Michigan for a second stint on an NFL sideline. He was an NFC champion as the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers 12 years ago (losing to his brother, John), and now he will try to get over the hump and win the Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Chargers. Harbaugh is +850 to win Coach of the Year, and the Chargers are +110 to make the playoffs.
The other new coaches: Dave Canales is the new head coach with the Carolina Panthers. Jerod Mayo has taken over in New England. Antonio Pierce returns as the official head coach with the Las Vegas Raiders, dropping his interim tag. Brian Callahan is the new head coach of the Tennessee Titans. Dan Quinn leads the Washington Commanders. Mike Macdonald is the head coach in Seattle. Raheem Morris is the new head coach with the Atlanta Falcons.
Of the teams being led by new head coaches, only Atlanta is a favorite to make the playoffs, paying -215. The Falcons are -130 to win the NFC South, and Morris is +1300 to win Coach of the Year.
Future Ex-Head Coaches
Assuming none of the above eight coaches pulls an Urban Meyer, they will be head coaches in 2025. But we do know that of the 32 head coaches to begin this season, a good number of them won’t be back.
New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen is the most likely to be the first coaching casualty. Allen is in his third season as the head man in New Orleans, and he has yet to take the Saints to the playoffs. He is +300 to be the first head coach fired.
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has only fired one head coach in the last 14 years, but Mike McCarthy is +600 to be his second dismissal, and the first fired coach of this season.
The New York Jets roster is finally built to compete on a high level. But if they fall short, the odds are +700 that Robert Saleh will be the first head coach to lose his job.
Playoff Turnover
Last season, six of the 14 teams in the postseason didn’t make the playoffs the year before. The NFL prides itself on teams going from the bottom to the top each season, and 2024 won’t be any different. There will be a number of fan bases treated to playoff football a year after having their seasons end early.
The Jets haven’t been in the playoffs since 2010, but they are -175 to make their return this season. The Cincinnati Bengals, like the Jets, had their 2023 derailed by an injury to their quarterback. Joe Burrow is now healthy, and Cincinnati is -260 to return to the playoffs.
The Chicago Bears were last in the playoffs in 2020, and with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams now under center (he’s +135 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year) the Bears are -110 to make it back to the playoffs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been in the playoffs for four consecutive seasons, but they are -185 to see that streak end. The Pittsburgh Steelers limped into the playoffs as the final seed in 2023, and they are -235 favorites to miss the postseason this year.
Milestones to Watch For
Aaron Rodgers comes into the season needing 945 passing yards to reach 60,000 for his career. If he adds 2,307 yards, he will pass Dan Marino for eighth-place on the all-time list. Rodgers is +1800 to win a fifth MVP award, which would tie him with Peyton Manning for most all-time.
Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr are both less than 1,000 yards from reaching 40,000 yards passing for their careers.
Mike Evans is 320 receiving yards away from attaining 12,000 yards for his career. Davante Adams and Keenan Allen are both less than 500 yards away from getting to 11,000 receiving yards. Stefon Diggs needs just five yards to get to 10,000 receiving yards.
Adams and Evans both need five touchdowns to get to 100 touchdowns for their careers. Tyreek Hill is 11 touchdowns away from 100.
Some 31 players in NFL history have rushed for at least 10,000 yards. Derrick Henry is 498 yards away from adding his name to that list.
T.J. Watt needs 3.5 sacks to make it to 100 for his career. Myles Garrett is 11.5 sacks away from 100, and Danielle Hunter needs 12.5 to get to the century mark.
With over 25 years of experience as a distinguished sports writer for renowned platforms such as Fox Sports and ESPN, Kyle Garlett is a sports betting specialist who has been at the forefront of documenting the global surge in sports betting and online gaming. Based in Denver, Colorado, Kyle hosts an NFL betting YouTube show and podcast. Kyle also has two sports books published by HarperCollins.
Kyle graduated the Azusa Pacific University in 1996 with a B.A. Degree in Communication and Journalism.
